华泰证券则指出，展望2025年，此前七部委联合发布刺激乳业的消费政策通知，政策催化下、乳制品需求有望得到改善；建议关注春节旺季的动销表现，礼赠场景有望提振高端液奶需求，且在龙头乳企锚定高质量发展、积极布局有机等高端品类的推动下，产品结构提升可期。此外，10月28日国务院办公厅印发《关于加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施》，旨在推动生育水平回升，我们看好顶层设计对生育支持的重视，奶粉行业集中度提升仍为主线。Dairy stocks have collectively rebounded. As of the time of reporting, youran dairy (09858) is up 5.47%, trading at HKD 1.35; china feihe (06186) is up 3.04%, trading at HKD 5.77; ch modern d (01117) is up 2.53%, trading at HKD 0.81; mengniu dairy (02319) is up 2.16%, trading at HKD 17.
According to Zhito Finance APP, dairy stocks have collectively rebounded. As of the time of reporting, youran dairy (09858) is up 5.47%, trading at HKD 1.35; china feihe (06186) is up 3.04%, trading at HKD 5.77; ch modern d (01117) is up 2.53%, trading at HKD 0.81; mengniu dairy (02319) is up 2.16%, trading at HKD 17.
Haitong Int'l pointed out that in Q3 2024, the dairy product industry is impacted by factors such as weak terminal demand, resulting in overall sector revenue being under pressure year-on-year. However, the quarter-on-quarter performance has shifted from negative to positive, and revenue in Q4 during the Spring Festival stocking period is expected to improve further. In terms of profit performance, benefiting from the decline in raw milk prices and effective control of overall expense ratios, the overall sector's profit performance is impressive. Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and 2025, it is believed that as consumer recovery gradually warms up, low base temperature liquid milk is expected to return to growth, and raw milk supply and demand are expected to reach a new balance. It is anticipated that the overall performance of the industry will continue to improve.
Htsc pointed out that looking towards 2025, the previous joint announcement by seven ministries to stimulate dairy consumption policies is expected to improve the demand for dairy products under policy catalysis. It is recommended to pay attention to the sales performance during the Spring Festival peak season, as gifting scenarios are expected to boost the demand for high-end liquid milk. Additionally, under the push of leading dairy companies targeting high-quality development and actively laying out organic and other high-end categories, enhancement of product structure is expected. Moreover, on October 28, the General Office of the State Council issued a document titled "Several Measures for Accelerating the Improvement of the Childbearing Support Policy System to Promote the Construction of a Child-Friendly Society", aimed at promoting the recovery of birth levels. There's a bullish outlook on the emphasis on top-level design for childbearing support, and the concentration of the milk powder industry remains the main theme.
