AAC TECH(2018.HK):PRODUCT UPGRADES AND MARGIN EXPANSION TO CONTINUE; REITERATE BUY
AAC TECH(2018.HK):PRODUCT UPGRADES AND MARGIN EXPANSION TO CONTINUE; REITERATE BUY
Our FY24-26E EPS forecasts are 5-9% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrades, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 21.8x/17.2x FY24/25E P/E.We hosted AAC Tech 4Q24 outlook investor call yesterday (28 Nov). Mgmt. is positive on continued spec upgrade in smartphone acoustics/optics/haptics in 2H24E and expects mild smartphone demand recovery to extend into FY25E. Mgmt. also reiterated FY24E guidance of 15% YoY revenue growth (exclu. PSS), with GPM HoH expansion in 2H24E. By segment, mgmt. shared the latest updates: 1) Optics: high-end HLS mix to improve with higher OIS/periscope HCM shipment to Android customers, WLG order wins to boost sales upside into FY25/26E. 2) Acoustics: high-end order wins with multiple major customers. 3) Haptics/casing /hinges: continued spec upgrades on light-weighted designs and foldable phone penetration. 4) Heat dispassion: material innovation and AI smartphone upgrade demand. Overall, we lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrade trends, better margin recovery and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26E. Our new TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. Near-term catalysts include key customer product launches, spec upgrades and GPM expansion.
我们于昨日（11月28日）举办了瑞声科技2024年第四季度展望投资者电话会议。管理层积极看涨智能手机声学/光学/触觉规格升级将持续提升，并预计轻微的智能手机需求复苏将延续至2025财年。管理层还重申了2024财年（不包括PSS）15%的年同比营业收入增长的指引，并预计2024年第二个半年GPm环比扩张。按业务板块划分，管理层分享了最新的更新：1）光学：高端HLS混合将随着更高的OIS/望远镜HCm出货量向安卓客户提高，获得WLG订单将提升销售额，进入2025/26财年。2）声学：与多个重要客户获得高端订单。3）触觉/外壳/铰链：针对轻量化设计和可折叠手机普及持续规格升级。4）散热：材料创新和人工智能智能手机升级需求。总体而言，我们将我们的2024-2026年EPS预测上调了6-8%，以反映强劲的产品升级趋势、更好的利润率恢复和2025/26财年的人工智能规格升级。我们的新目标价为40.83港元，暗示2025财年P/E为19.6倍。短期催化剂包括关键客户产品发布、规格升级和GPm扩张。
Spec upgrades and better margins across all segments in 2H24E. Mgmt. stated that AAC secured order wins in acoustic/haptics/optics/casing products in Apple/Android's latest flagship models in 2H24E, which will boost margins due to better spec and higher supply share. In particular, mgmt. maintained positive view on GPM expansion for both plastic lens and HCM in 2H24E, and breakeven target for optics biz is on track in 4Q24E. AAC's WLG business also secured order wins with customers from both smartphone and automotive clients, targeting 10kk unit shipment in FY25E.
2024年第二个半年各板块都实现了规格升级和更好的利润率。管理层表示，瑞声在2024年第二个半年的声学/触觉/光学/外壳产品中获得了苹果/安卓最新旗舰机型的订单，这将由于更高的规格和更高的供应份额而提升利润率。特别是，管理层对2024年第二个半年塑料透镜和HCm的GPm扩张表现持续看涨，并且光学业务的收支平衡目标在2024年第四季度达成。瑞声的WLG业务还在智能手机和汽车客户中赢得了订单，并计划在2025财年出货1000万套。
FY24E/2025 outlook: spec migration for iPhone 17 and Android AI phone. Mgmt. is confident that sales momentum and margin expansion will sustain into FY25/26E, mainly driven by 1) share gains in optics HLS/HCM/WLG with GPM expansion, 2) spec upgrade (acoustics/haptics/heat//optics) for next-gen Apple/Android AI smartphones, 3) sales synergy with PSS auto acoustics. Overall, we expect AAC's earnings to grow 138%/27% YoY in FY24/25E.
2024/2025财年展望：iPhone 17和安卓人工智能手机的规格迁移。管理层确信销售动力和利润扩张将持续至2025/26财年，主要受到以下因素的推动：1）光学HLS/HCM/WLG份额在GPm扩张方面的增长，2）下一代苹果/安卓人工智能智能手机的规格升级（声学/触觉/散热/光学），3）与PSS汽车声学的销售协同效应。总体而言，我们预计瑞声的收入在2024/25财年将年同比增长138%/27%。
Our FY24-26E EPS forecasts are 5-9% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrades, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 21.8x/17.2x FY24/25E P/E.
我们对FY24-26E每股收益的预测高出共识5-9％；维持买入。我们将FY24-26E每股收益预测上调6-8％，以反映强劲的产品升级，更好的利润率配置和人工智能规格升级进入FY25/26。我们基于SOTP的新目标价格为40.83港元，意味着19.6倍FY25E市盈率。该股目前交易于21.8倍/17.2倍FY24/25E市盈率。
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