1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
Canada's energy market is lucrative. The country has the fourth-largest global supply of proven oil reserves and the third-largest reserves of uranium. Moreover, solar and wind are some of the fastest-growing sources of energy. Canada is also the largest exporter of oil and gas to the United States. Thus, you see a variety of energy stocks on the TSX, from companies that extract oil and gas to gas utilities to gas pipeline companies that transmit to the United States, to green energy companies.
加拿大的能源市場利潤豐厚。該國擁有全球第四大探明石油儲量和第三大鈾儲量。此外,太陽能和風能是增長最快的能源之一。加拿大還是美國最大的石油和天然氣出口國。因此,你可以在多倫多證券交易所看到各種各樣的能源股,從開採石油和天然氣的公司到天然氣公用事業公司,再到輸送到美國的天然氣管道公司,再到綠色能源公司。
However, not all energy stocks are a good buying option. The energy sector is capital intensive and only a few have the cost advantage to make you buy them confidently.
但是,並非所有能源股都是不錯的買入選擇。能源行業是資本密集型的,只有少數幾個具有成本優勢,可以讓您放心地購買它們。
A Canadian energy stock to buy
一隻值得買入的加拿大能源股
Energy infrastructure companies have the advantage of earning toll money for transmitting oil and gas between countries and provinces. However, they carry a significant risk of cost overruns as it is increasingly difficult to build pipelines due to environmental concerns and approvals.
能源基礎設施公司的優勢是通過在國家和省份之間輸送石油和天然氣來賺取通行費。但是,由於環境問題和批准,管道建設變得越來越困難,因此它們存在成本超支的巨大風險。
TC Energy stock
TC 能源股票
TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has an advantage. Its Coastal GasLink pipeline is the first direct pipeline that opens Canada's liquified natural gas (LNG) to the world. North American LNG exports to Europe and Asia are a huge market to tap. However, the Coastal GasLink pipeline went into significant cost overruns from the initial estimate of $6.6 billion to the actual cost of $14.5 billion. TC Energy wrote off billions in losses that pulled its stock price down in 2022 and 2023.
TC Energy(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:TRP)具有優勢。其Coastal GasLink管道是第一條向世界開放加拿大液化天然氣(LNG)的直接管道。北美向歐洲和亞洲出口液化天然氣是一個巨大的市場。但是,Coastal GasLink管道出現了嚴重的成本超支,從最初估計的66億美元增加到145億美元的實際成本。TC Energy註銷了數十億美元的損失,使其股價在2022年和2023年下跌。
Now is the time to reap the benefits of this natural gas pipeline. To extract more efficiencies and value, the company also spun off its oil pipeline business and named it South Bow. TC Energy's share price has picked up since July as interest rate cuts began and the spin-off materialized in October. The outlook is bright for TC Energy as US president-elect Donald Trump favours oil and gas energy resources. Faster approval of projects could be on the cards, which could help TC Energy accelerate the execution of high-value projects and tap LNG exports.
現在是從這條天然氣管道中受益的時候了。爲了提高效率和價值,該公司還分拆了石油管道業務,並將其命名爲South Bow。隨着減息的開始和10月份分拆的實現,TC Energy的股價自7月以來有所回升。由於美國當選總統唐納德·特朗普偏愛石油和天然氣能源,TC Energy的前景一片光明。加快項目批准的速度可能即將到來,這可能有助於TC Energy加快高價值項目的執行並開拓液化天然氣出口。
Debt is a risk for TC Energy, but the company expects to bring the debt to its upper target limit of 4.8 times its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the long term. It expects to grow its dividends by 3-5% for the coming three years and by 5% later as it taps the LNG export market.
債務是TC Energy的風險,但該公司預計,從長遠來看,債務將達到其4.8倍的目標上限,即息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(扣除利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益)。該公司預計,未來三年其股息將增長3-5%,隨着其進入液化天然氣出口市場,股息將增長5%。
A Canadian energy stock to avoid
需要避開的加拿大能源股
While TC Energy is focusing on high-value projects, Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX:AQN) is offloading assets. It has sold its renewable energy business for $2.5 billion to focus on regulated energy services that have stable cash flows. The restructuring and efforts to lower the debt are ongoing.
雖然TC Energy專注於高價值項目,但阿岡昆電力和公用事業公司(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:AQN)正在轉移資產。它已以25億美元的價格出售了其可再生能源業務,專注於具有穩定現金流的受監管能源服務。重組和降低債務的努力仍在進行中。
The company is still trying to survive and has yet to show any signs of growth. In the third quarter, AQN even reduced its dividend per share by 40%, after slashing them by 40% in 2023. Two sharp dividend cuts in two years, a $7.5 billion debt, and a $5.1 billion market capitalization show that debt is still a concern.
該公司仍在努力生存,尚未顯示出任何增長跡象。在第三季度,AQN甚至將其每股股息減少了40%,此前在2023年將其股息削減了40%。兩年內兩次大幅削減股息、75億美元的債務和51億美元的市值表明,債務仍然是一個問題。
Algonquin Power & Utilities stock has lost over 60% of its value in the past two years. And the fall is for the weak fundamentals. Even a 5.4% yield does not make it look attractive, as this dividend is at risk. Moreover, Trump could cut subsidies for renewable energy, making them less attractive.
在過去兩年中,阿岡昆電力和公用事業公司的股票下跌了60%以上。而下跌是由於基本面疲軟所致。即使是5.4%的收益率也不會使其看起來具有吸引力,因爲這種股息存在風險。此外,特朗普可能會削減對可再生能源的補貼,從而降低其吸引力。
Final takeaway
最後的外賣
A sector may be attractive, but not all stocks in the industry are attractive. Whenever you are bullish on a sector, make sure to also read about the companies that are well-placed to tap that growth.
一個行業可能具有吸引力,但並非該行業中的所有股票都具有吸引力。每當你看好某個行業時,一定要同時閱讀那些有能力利用這種增長的公司。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。