1 Magnificent Canadian Dividend Stock Down 32% to Buy and Hold Forever
1 Magnificent Canadian Dividend Stock Down 32% to Buy and Hold Forever
For years, Canadian telecom stocks were seen as some of the best long-term dividend stocks you could buy, with BCE (TSX:BCE) being the leader in the space.
多年来,加拿大的电信股票被视为一些最佳的长期分红股票,其中BCE(tsx:BCE)是该领域的领军者。
However, recently, the industry has become even more competitive, and capital expenditures have been significantly increased for years now as these companies build out both their fibre and 5G infrastructures simultaneously.
然而,最近,该行业变得更加竞争激烈,这些公司多年来的资本支出已经显著增加,因为它们同时建设他们的光纤和5g概念基础设施。
These investments were necessary for the long-term growth and sustainability of these companies, and the infrastructure that's been constructed predominantly consists of long-life assets that should help BCE and its peers generate significant cash flow for years to come.
这些投资对于这些公司的长期增长和可持续性是必要的,目前建设的基础设施主要由长寿命资产组成,这些资产应该有助于BCE及其同行们未来多年产生可观的现金流。
However, in the near term, the increased spending has led to higher debt for BCE, and a growing payout ratio that investors and analysts are concerned about is becoming unsustainable.
但是,短期内增加的支出导致了BCE的债务增加,投资者和分析师担心的日益增长的支付比率已变得难以持续。
In fact, after making yet another $5 billion investment on an acquisition, just weeks after selling its stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment for roughly $4.7 billion, BCE announced that it would only maintain its dividend in 2025 rather than continue with its annual increases to the dividend.
事实上,在进行了另一笔50亿投资收购后,仅仅几周后以约47亿出售了其在Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment的股权后,BCE宣布将于2025年仅保持其分红派息而不再继续进行年度增长。
So, with BCE trading 32% off its 52-week high and now offering a dividend yield of more than 10%, let's look at whether it's one of the best Canadian dividend stocks you can buy now.
因此,考虑到BCE股价较其52周高位下跌了32%,并且目前提供的股息率超过10%,让我们看看它是否是您现在可以购买的最佳加拿大股息股票之一。
Is BCE one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now?
BCE是否是您现在可以购买的最佳加拿大股息股票之一?
Telecom stocks like BCE have traditionally been some of the best long-term Canadian dividend stocks you can buy due to the essential services they provide and the reliable cash flow they generate. However, BCE's rising payout ratio introduces a layer of uncertainty, which explains the significant discount on its shares.
像BCE这样的电信股票一直以来都是您可以购买的最佳长期加拿大股息股票之一,因为它们提供的基本服务以及它们所产生的可靠现金流。然而,BCE不断增加的支付比率增加了一层不确定性,这解释了其股票的显着折扣。
Currently, BCE pays an annual dividend of $3.99 per share, requiring approximately $3.5 billion in cash flow to sustain it. However, analyst forecasts suggest the company will generate normalized earnings per share of $2.98 in 2024—down slightly from 2023. Additionally, BCE is expected to generate free cash flow just shy of $3 billion this year, which is also a modest decline from last year.
目前,BCE每股支付3.99美元的年度分红,需要大约35亿现金流来维持。然而,分析师预测表明,该公司预计2024年的每股规范盈利为2.98美元,略低于2023年。此外,预计BCE今年的自由现金流将接近30亿,也略有下降。
This shortfall between cash flow and dividend requirements understandably raises concerns for a company that's traditionally been one of the best Canadian dividend stocks you can buy.
这种现金流与分红需求之间的差距,可以理解地引起人们对一家传统上是你可以购买的最佳加拿大分红股票之一的公司的担忧。
However, BCE's position as a market leader in a defensive industry provides a degree of reassurance. Moreover, its recent acquisition is expected to extend its growth runway, potentially strengthening both its debt profile and its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term.
然而,BCE作为防御性行业中的市场领先者,提供了一定程度的安全感。而且,它最近的收购预计将延长其增长前景,可能加强其债务结构和维持长期分红的能力。
It's also important to note that BCE has an investment-grade credit rating, and maintaining this status is a key priority for management. Therefore, BCE will likely focus heavily on debt management, deleveraging, and safeguarding its dividend, which is why it might just be one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now.
同样重要的是,BCE拥有投资级信用评级,维持这一地位是管理层的首要任务。因此,BCE可能会重点关注债务管理、去杠杆和保护其股息,这就是为什么它可能是现在购买的最佳加拿大分红股票之一。
Is this risk worth the reward?
这种风险是否值得回报?
Despite the increased risks, BCE's 32% discount and its status as a market leader in a defensive sector present a compelling opportunity for investors today.
尽管风险增加,BCE的32%折扣和作为防御性行业市场领导者的地位,为投资者提供了今天一个引人注目的机会。
Furthermore, its more than 10% dividend yield is especially attractive, even if dividend growth remains muted for the foreseeable future.
此外,其超过10%的股息率尤其吸引人,即使在可预见的未来股息增长保持疲弱的情况下。
Therefore, investors willing to tolerate some short-term uncertainty could see significant long-term upside, not just from the significant dividends but also from potential capital gains as BCE deleverages and its valuation recovers. Plus, with the stock trading at such a significant discount, it's hard to ignore.
因此,愿意忍受一些短期不确定性的投资者可能会看到显著的长期上涨,不仅来自可观的股息,还可能来自BCE去杠杆和其估值回升的潜在资本收益。而且,随着股价交易在如此大幅度的折扣下,很难忽视。
For example, BCE is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.8 times, well below its 10-year average of 17.2 times and essentially the lowest it's ever been over the last decade.
例如, BCE 正在以 12.8 倍的未来市盈率进行交易,远低于其 10 年的平均值 17.2 倍,实际上是过去十年中最低的水平。
Furthermore, its forward enterprise value (EV) to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ratio is currently just 7.1 times. That's also significantly lower than its 10-year average EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.4 times.
此外,其未来企业价值(EV)与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收入(EBITDA)比率目前仅为 7.1 倍。这也明显低于其 10 年平均 EV/EBITDA 比率 8.4 倍。
Therefore, given BCE's status as a dominant player in a highly essential industry, its long-term growth potential, and the substantial discount on its shares today, the risk-reward profile remains compelling.
因此,考虑到 BCE 作为高度必不可少行业中的主导者、其长期增长潜力和如今股价上的大幅折扣,风险回报比仍然令人信服。
So, while the risks tied to its elevated debt and payout ratio shouldn't be overlooked, the strong likelihood that BCE will successfully navigate these short-term challenges suggests it could still be one of the best Canadian dividend stocks to buy now.
因此,尽管其高负债和支付比率所带来的风险不容忽视,但 BCE 成功应对这些短期挑战的强大可能性表明它仍然可能是目前最佳的加拿大分红股之一。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。