2025 Stock Playbook: Tap Into AI's $1 Trillion Potential, US Growth Opportunities
2025 Stock Playbook: Tap Into AI's $1 Trillion Potential, US Growth Opportunities
JPMorgan estimates the broader AI ecosystem could surpass $1 trillion in spending by the end of the year. This includes costs for infrastructure, engineering talent and data center upkeep.Wall Street eyes 2025 with confidence as JPMorgan declares the U.S. will remain the global growth leader.
華爾街對2025年充滿信心，摩根大通宣稱美國將繼續成爲全球增長領導者。
While Europe wrestles with structural woes, the emerging markets face headwinds from high interest rates and a strong dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. is powering ahead, fueled by an AI-driven spending spree and robust capital market activity.
雖然歐洲正在與結構性問題作鬥爭，但新興市場正面臨高利率和強勢美元的逆風。與此同時，美國在人工智能驅動的消費熱潮和強勁的資本市場活動下持續向前推進。
AI Spending: A $1 Trillion Juggernaut
人工智能支出：一個1萬億的巨頭
Artificial intelligence is sparking a capital expenditure boom that dwarfs anything seen in decades. The Magnificent 7 — Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) — plan to invest over $500 billion into capex and R&D next year, roughly 25% of their combined sales.
人工智能正在引發一場資本支出熱潮，其規模超越幾十年來的任何情況。科技七巨頭——亞馬遜.com公司（納斯達克：AMZN），微軟公司（納斯達克：MSFT），meta platforms公司（納斯達克：META），英偉達公司（納斯達克：NVDA），alphabet inc（納斯達克：GOOGL）（納斯達克：GOOG），特斯拉公司（納斯達克：TSLA）和蘋果公司（納斯達克：AAPL）——計劃在明年投資超過5000億用於資本支出和研發，約佔其總銷售額的25%。
JPMorgan estimates the broader AI ecosystem could surpass $1 trillion in spending by the end of the year. This includes costs for infrastructure, engineering talent and data center upkeep.
摩根大通預計，到年底，整個人工智能生態系統的支出可能超過1萬億。這包括製造行業、工程人才和idc概念維護的成本。
While this AI frenzy promises to drive earnings growth, JPMorgan analysts warn of potential pitfalls. Capital misallocation and lofty growth expectations could draw investor skepticism by late 2025.
雖然這一人工智能熱潮承諾推動盈利增長，但摩根大通的分析師警示可能存在的隱患。資本錯配和過高的增長預期可能導致投資者在2025年底產生懷疑。
Still, the long-term AI opportunity is undeniable, and JPMorgan sees key players poised to capitalize.
不過，從長遠來看，人工智能的機會是不可否認的，摩根大通認爲關鍵參與者準備好抓住這一機會。
Read Also: 2025 US Economy Outlook 'Cloudier Than Normal,' JPMorgan Says: Boom, Bust Scenarios
另請參閱：摩根大通表示2025年美國經濟展望比正常情況下更爲陰暗：繁榮與蕭條的情景。
A Broad Earnings Recovery
廣泛的利潤恢復
JPMorgan projects a bounce-back year for earnings growth in 2025. S&P 500 companies are projected to achieve an 11.4% earnings increase with all 11 sectors turning positive after 2024's uneven performance.
摩根大通預計2025年盈利增長將反彈。標準普爾500公司預計實現11.4%的盈利增長，所有11個行業在2024年表現不均後均轉爲正值。
Meanwhile, small-cap Russell 2000 firms should see rebounding with double-digit earnings growth after enduring two years of declines.
與此同時，小型股羅素2000公司在經歷了兩年的下降後，預計將實現雙位數的盈利增長。
Even the Magnificent 7 are expected to sustain a 15% growth rate.
甚至科技七巨頭也預計維持15%的增長率。
JPMorgan analysts note a surprising upside could emerge if borrowing costs or the U.S. dollar ease. This should boost S&P 500 earnings by 1% for every 2% drop in the dollar.
摩根大通分析師指出，如果借貸成本或美元放緩，意外的上行潛力可能會出現。這應該會使標準普爾500的盈利因美元下跌2%而增加1%的盈利。
Stock Picks: Who's In JPMorgan's Cart?
股票精選：摩根大通的清單中有哪些？
Here are a few of the top picks per theme, from JPMorgan's 2025 outlook, which the firm has an Overweight (OW) rating on:
以下是摩根大通2025年展望下，根據主題的一些頂級股票推薦，該公司對其持有超配（OW）評級：
- AI Winners: Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM), Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM).
- Deregulation Darlings: Apple, ExxonMobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Baker Hughes Co (NASDAQ:BKR), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC).
- America First Beneficiaries: Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT), General Motors Co (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F), Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT), and more.
- 人工智能贏家：亞馬遜、微軟、英偉達、alphabet inc、meta platforms、高通（NASDAQ:QCOM）、Salesforce Inc（紐交所:CRM）。
- 放鬆監管的寵兒：蘋果，埃克森美孚公司（紐交所：XOM），貝克休斯公司（納斯達克：BKR），美國銀行公司（紐交所：BAC）。
- 美國優先受益者：波音公司（紐交所：BA），洛克希德·馬丁公司（紐交所：LMT），通用汽車公司（紐交所：GM），福特汽車公司（紐交所：F），卡特彼勒公司（紐交所：CAT），以及更多。
With an AI boom, a broad earnings recovery, and pro-American policies potentially reshaping the landscape, JPMorgan's 2025 vision sets a bold tone for the year ahead.
在人工智能繁榮、廣泛的盈利復甦和親美政策潛在重塑格局的背景下，摩根大通的2025願景爲未來一年奠定了大膽的基調。
- JPMorgan's Volatility Play: Long VIX Calls, Short SPY Puts
- 摩根大通的波動性操作：開多VIX認購期權，開空SPY認沽期權
Photo: Sutthiphong Chandaeng via Shutterstock
照片：Sutthiphong Chandaeng via shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
