Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Jumps 5.3% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Five-year Shareholder Returns
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Jumps 5.3% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Five-year Shareholder Returns
When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For instance, the price of The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) stock is up an impressive 279% over the last five years. It's also up 9.9% in about a month. But this could be related to good market conditions -- stocks in its market are up 4.7% in the last month.
當你買入一隻股票時,總是有可能其價格會下跌100%。但積極的一面是,你可以在一隻非常好的股票上賺取遠超過100%的收益。例如,進步公司(紐約證券交易所:PGR)的股票在過去五年中上漲了令人印象深刻的279%。它在大約一個月內也上漲了9.9%。但這可能與良好的市場狀況有關——該市場的股票在過去一個月上漲了4.7%。
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
在穩定的七天表現之後,讓我們看看公司的基本面對長期股東回報的影響。
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
用本傑明·格雷厄姆的話來說:「短期市場是一臺投票機,但長期市場是一臺稱重機」。檢查市場情緒如何隨時間推移變化的一種方式是查看公司股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
Over half a decade, Progressive managed to grow its earnings per share at 21% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 31% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
在過去五年中,進步公司每股收益年均增長21%。這個每股收益的增長低於31%的股票價格平均年增長率。因此,可以合理地認爲市場對該業務的看法比五年前更高。考慮到其增長的業績記錄,這一點並不令人震驚。
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
您可以看到EPS隨時間的變化如下(通過單擊圖像了解確切數值)。
We know that Progressive has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
我們知道,Progressive最近改善了其底線,但它的營業收入會增長嗎?如果你感興趣,可以查看這份免費的報告,顯示共識營業收入預測。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Progressive the TSR over the last 5 years was 325%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮總股東回報(TSR)和股價回報之間的差異。股價回報僅反映股價的變化,而TSR包括分紅的價值(假設它們被再投資)和任何折價融資或分拆的好處。可以公平地說,TSR爲支付分紅的股票提供了更全面的視角。我們注意到,對於Progressive來說,過去5年的TSR爲325%,這比上述提到的股價回報要好。因此,公司支付的分紅提升了總股東回報。
A Different Perspective
另一種看法
It's good to see that Progressive has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 65% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 34% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Progressive you should know about.
看到Progressive在過去12個月裏爲股東帶來了65%的總股東回報是件好事。而這包括了分紅。由於一年期的TSR好於五年期TSR(後者爲每年34%),這似乎表明股票的表現最近有所改善。持樂觀態度的人可能會將TSR的近期改善視爲企業本身隨着時間的推移而變得更好的標誌。我發現從長期來看觀察股價作爲企業表現的代理指標非常有趣。但要真正獲取洞察,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如考慮風險。每家公司都有風險,我們已經發現Progressive有一個警告信號,你應該知道。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜歡與管理層一起購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個公司的免費列表。 (提示:其中許多公司不爲人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。