On November 27, the cryptocurrency market continued to exhibit significant volatility, with bitcoin remaining under pressure after rising to a high of $99,588 last Friday, accumulating nearly a 5% drop this week. As of the time of writing,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ it is up 1.31% at $93,129.56; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ it is up 2.97% at $3,423.41.

Key Focus

• Standard Chartered Bank analyst: BTC may consolidate in the range of $85,000 to $88,700 before moving upward.

Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that this BTC pullback is mainly influenced by changes in the usa treasury bond market. He explained that the decline in the term premium of us treasury bonds has boosted market confidence, which may temporarily weaken bitcoin's appeal as a hedging tool. Nonetheless, Kendrick maintains his forecast for bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of the year and expects it to reach $0.2 million by the end of 2025.

It is worth noting that the upcoming options expiration this Friday is also bringing short-term pressure to the price of bitcoin. Data shows that since the usa election, the spot bitcoin etf has accumulated about 77,000 bitcoins, while microstrategy has increased its holdings by 134,000 bitcoins, with an average purchase price of institutions at $88,700. Kendrick expects this price point may become a short-term resistance, with bitcoin consolidating in the range of $85,000 to $88,700, followed by further upward movement.

• Research: The BTC options market has seen a massive amount of csi commodity equity index trades, with total large call options trading for the day exceeding $0.12 billion.

According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, the bitcoin options market has seen a massive amount of csi commodity equity index transactions, with cumulative large trades exceeding 6000 BTC in value starting from 21:00. The total large call options trading for the day has already surpassed $0.12 billion. Among them, nearly 5000 BTC was for the active buying of call options at $92,000 to $100,000 for December 27, and this buying behavior is still ongoing. In addition to the high number of purchase orders, the premium for this wave of purchases is significantly higher than usual, being bought up at over twice the premium cost. Analysts believe that large whales are in action.

• Report: Telegram's cryptocurrency holdings increased to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2024.

The value of digital assets held by the messaging platform Telegram has risen from $0.4 billion at the end of 2023 to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2024. Telegram previously disclosed that it held about $0.4 billion in digital assets. However, new information indicates that the company's holdings in cryptos have exceeded $1 billion.

According to the report, the instant messaging platform generated $0.525 billion in revenue from January to June. This represents a growth of 190% compared to the same period in 2023. The report emphasizes that the company earned $0.353 billion in the first half of 2024 from selling cryptos. The report shows that about $0.225 billion came from trades with an undisclosed entity. It has been reported that Telegram was compensated for allowing the TON token to become the exclusive way for businesses to purchase advertising on its messaging application.

• Analyst: $0.1 million may have become a high threshold or even an obstacle for BTC investors to take further profits.

David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation, stated that while '$0.1 million' is a nice round number, it feels like this figure has become a high threshold or even an obstacle for bitcoin investors to take further profits. If bitcoin drops from now on, that may be indicative of everything the market is showing, especially if long-term holders decide to cash out early. However, David Morrison also pointed out that the upward momentum of bitcoin is likely to gather enough energy to push the price beyond the $0.1 million mark. Once this resistance level is broken, it could trigger another increase in bitcoin.

• The Trump administration plans to give more power to the CFTC, reshaping the regulatory landscape for digital assets.

According to Fox Business News, the incoming Trump administration hopes to expand the powers of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), granting it significant regulatory authority over the digital asset market. This move is part of a broader effort by President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican majority in Congress to weaken the regulatory power of the USA Securities and Exchange Commission under President Biden and the soon-to-be-former SEC Chair Gary Gensler over the digital asset industry.

Sources familiar with Trump's team indicate that with Trump's inauguration and the increasing influence of the crypto industry in Republican politics, the CFTC's responsibilities may soon expand to regulate the spot market for digital assets deemed commodities (such as bitcoin and ethereum) as well as the exchanges that facilitate their trade. Key figures in the incoming Trump administration believe that regulatory relief is needed to stimulate innovation in the crypto business, including potentially transformative blockchain technology. Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo stated, "With ample funding and the right leadership, I believe the CFTC can start regulating digital commodities on day one of Trump's presidency."

• CryptoQuant: Long-term bitcoin holders have sold over 728,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

According to The Block, based on CryptoQuant's data, long-term bitcoin holders have sold over 728,000 bitcoins in the past 30 days. CryptoQuant wrote in a post on X: "This is the largest sell-off since April." This also reverses the trend in October where large buyers aggressively accumulated bitcoins, during which bitcoin saw an inflow of nearly 250,000 coins. According to TradingView, bitcoin's market share (measuring its proportion of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization) is currently about 58.78%, down from recent highs above 60%.

• Glassnode: Bitcoin may drop below $88,000, then attempt to break through $100,000 again.

According to Cryptoslate, based on Glassnode's report, if the market declines further, bitcoin could drop to the area below $88,000 and then continue to move toward the $100,000 threshold. The report highlights a key "gap," as the rapid rise of BTC has led to little trading activity between $76,000 and $88,000, creating an undeveloped price range that could attract market attention if the current pullback continues.

However, this price behavior is natural during the price discovery phase, which typically involves cycles of rising, correcting, and consolidating to establish a stable price range. Observing the supply distribution during the price discovery phase is crucial to reveal the areas of supply and demand that may affect bitcoin's trend.

• 21Shares crypto strategist: $0.1 million is a psychologically significant sell-off point, and bitcoin is expected to break through $0.1 million this year.

21Shares crypto research analyst Matt Mena stated that for investors who have been holding Bitcoin since the last bull market, $100,000 is a psychologically significant selling point. Matt Mena believes that if the Bitcoin price continues to fall, it could drop to $80,000. He mentioned that options traders focusing on cryptocurrencies also support this view, with a large number of December expiring options contracts betting on Bitcoin falling to $80,000. Mena still expects Bitcoin to rebound before the end of the year, with the holiday season potentially driving Bitcoin up to the range of $110,000 to $120,000.

Editor/rice