A 10% Dividend Yield Today! But Here's Why I'm Buying This TSX Stock for the Long Term
A 10% Dividend Yield Today! But Here's Why I'm Buying This TSX Stock for the Long Term
A 10% yield often spells trouble. And this 10% dividend stock is going through troubles. However, it has the resources to recover from these challenges and benefit from long-term secular growth. The stock in question is BCE (TSX:BCE). The telco has come under fire for several reasons. A restructuring of a giant like BCE made thousands of Canadians jobless. It even had a tussle with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was furious about the layoffs.
10%的收益率往往意味着麻煩。而這隻10%的分紅派息股票正經歷着困境。然而,它有資源從這些挑戰中恢復,並受益於長期的世俗增長。這隻股票是BCE (tsx:BCE)。這家公司因多種原因受到抨擊。像BCE這樣的巨頭重組使成千上萬的加拿大人失業。它甚至與總理賈斯廷·特魯多發生了衝突,後者對裁員感到憤怒。
Troubles at the 10% dividend yield stock
10%分紅派息股票的麻煩
However, the decision was necessary as the radio business and electronics stores were not doing so well. As BCE has almost 30% share in Canada's vast telecom market, a company-wide restructuring will affect the country. At the same time, its significant investments in the 5G infrastructure also had country-wide implications. Many are connected to 5G.
然而,這一決定是必要的,因爲無線電業務和電子商店的表現都不佳。作爲加拿大龐大的電信市場中接近30%的分享者,公司大規模重組將影響到整個國家。同時,它在5g概念基礎設施上的重大投資也有全國性的影響。許多人都連接到5g。
The business restructuring has also pushed BCE into a net loss of $1.2 billion in the third quarter as it is impairing media assets. The company expects free cash flow (FCF) to fall 3-11% this year. All this comes after it paid 111% of its FCF in dividends in 2023 and increased its dividend by 3% in 2024. A higher dividend and lower FCF will probably increase the 2024 payout ratio beyond 120%, which is unsustainable.
業務重組還使BCE在第三季度遭受了12億的淨虧損,因爲這正在削弱其媒體資產。公司預計自由現金流(FCF)將在今年下降3-11%。這一切發生在它在2023年支付了111%的自由現金流作爲分紅派息並在2024年增加了3%的分紅派息後。更高的分紅派息和較低的自由現金流可能會使2024年的派息比例超過120%,這是不可持續的。
BCE's dividend-growth pause
BCE的分紅增長暫停
BCE needs money to complete the restructuring. The telecom company has paused its dividend growth for 2025 as it is focusing on reducing its debt and enhancing its free cash flow.
BCE需要資金來完成重組。這家電信公司已暫停2025年的分紅增長,因爲它專注於減少債務和增強自由現金流。
The pause in dividend growth was taken negatively by shareholders and sent BCE stock down 16% this month. The company made the right decision to prioritize debt reduction instead of straining its cash reserves to fund dividends. However, it made its dividend-reinvestment plan (DRIP) lucrative by offering to buy BCE shares at a 2% discount from the average price in 2025.
分紅增長的暫停被股東負面解讀,導致BCE股票在本月下跌了16%。公司做出了正確的決定,優先考慮減少債務,而不是壓榨現金儲備來支付分紅。然而,它通過提供在2025年以平均價格打折2%買入BCE股份,使其股息再投資計劃(DRIP)變得更具吸引力。
Why buy this 10% dividend yield stock for the long term?
爲什麼要長期買入這隻10%分紅收益率的股票?
BCE stock is at its 13-year low, which has inflated its yield to 10.5%. On top of this, BCE DRIP is offering a 2% discount on the average stock price. Even if the 3% dividend growth has vanished for the short term, it is partially offset by higher yield, a lower stock price, and the 2% discount.
BCE股票處於13年來的最低點,這使得其收益率膨脹至10.5%。此外,BCE的股息再投資計劃(DRIP)提供了平均股價2%的折扣。即使短期內3%的分紅增長已經消失,但較高的收益率、較低的股價和2%的折扣在一定程度上彌補了這一點。
A little over $5,000 investment today can buy you 133 shares of BCE. I am assuming the company maintains the same dividend for three years before returning to 3% dividend growth. However, it is a conservative estimate as BCE could accelerate its dividend growth after a pause to make up for years of no growth.
今天稍微超過5000美元的投資可以讓你買到133股BCE。我假設該公司在未來三年內維持相同的分紅,然後恢復3%的分紅增長。然而,這個估計比較保守,因爲BCE在暫停後可能會加速其分紅增長,以彌補多年沒有增長的損失。
Year | BCE Stock Price 3.2% CAGR* |
Annual Investment | BCE DRIP Shares | BCE Share count | BCE Dividend per share (3% CAGR) | Total dividend |
2025 | $37.66 | $5,000.00 | 132.8 | 133.0 | $3.99 | $530.67 |
2026 | $38.87 | $530.67 | 13.7 | 146.7 | $3.99 | $585.15 |
2027 | $40.11 | $585.15 | 14.6 | 161.2 | $3.99 | $643.36 |
2028 | $41.39 | $643.36 | 15.5 | 176.8 | $4.11 | $726.54 |
2029 | $42.72 | $726.54 | 17.0 | 193.8 | $4.23 | $820.33 |
2030 | $44.08 | $820.33 | 18.6 | 212.4 | $4.36 | $926.07 |
2031 | $45.49 | $926.07 | 20.4 | 232.8 | $4.49 | $1,045.27 |
2032 | $46.95 | $1,045.27 | 22.3 | 255.0 | $4.63 | $1,179.60 |
2033 | $48.45 | $1,179.60 | 24.3 | 279.4 | $4.76 | $1,330.98 |
2034 | $50.00 | $1,330.98 | 26.6 | 306.0 | $4.91 | $1,501.53 |
2035 | $51.60 | $1,501.53 | 29.1 | 335.1 | $5.05 | $1,693.65 |
年 | BCE股票價格 3.2% 年複合增長率* |
年度投資 | BCE再投資股 | BCE股份數量 | BCE每股股息(3%年複合增長率) | 總分紅 |
2025 | $37.66 | $5,000.00 | 132.8 | 133.0 | $3.99 | $530.67 |
2026 | $38.87 | $530.67 | 13.7 | 146.7 | $3.99 | $585.15 |
2027 | $40.11 | $585.15 | 14.6 | 1.612億 | $3.99 | $643.36 |
2028 | $41.39 | $643.36 | 15.5 | 176.8 | $4.11 | $726.54 |
2029 | $42.72 | $726.54 | 17.0 | 193.8 | $4.23 | $820.33 |
2030 | $44.08 | $820.33 | 18.6 | 212.4 | $4.36 | $926.07 |
2031 | $45.49 | $926.07 | 20.4 | 232.8 | $4.49 | $1,045.27 |
2032 | $46.95 | $1,045.27 | 22.3 | 255.0 | $4.63 | $1,179.60 |
2033 | $48.45 | $1,179.60 | 24.3 | 279.4 | $4.76 | $1,330.98 |
2034 | $50.00 | $1,330.98 | 26.6 | 306.0 | $4.91 | $1,501.53 |
2035 | $51.60 | $1,501.53 | 29.1 | 335.1 | $5.05 | $1,693.65 |
In 11 years, the BCE DRIP could grow your annual dividend payout more than threefold to $1,693. Moreover, a recovery in BCE's fundamentals and its focus on techno could pave the way for the 5G growth trend in artificial intelligence and cloud networking.
在11年內,BCE DRIP的年度分紅派息可能增長到超過三倍,達到1693美元。此外,BCE基本面的復甦及其對技術的關注可能爲人工智能和雲網絡中的5g概念增長趨勢鋪平道路。
Final takeaway
最終總結
I am confident about BCE's recovery, given its +50 years of successful business operations and a vast 5G infrastructure and market share. You could consider buying and holding the stock for the long term.
考慮到BCE在業務運營中超過50年的成功經驗及其豐富的5g概念基礎設施和市場份額,我對BCE的復甦充滿信心。你可以考慮長期買入並持有該股票。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。