KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(1024.HK):INLINE 3Q24; INCREASED INVESTMENTS AMID INTENSIFIED COMPETITION
KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(1024.HK):INLINE 3Q24; INCREASED INVESTMENTS AMID INTENSIFIED COMPETITION
3Q24 financials inline with solid user metrics. Total revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB31.1bn, in line with consensus and BOCIe. User metrics were resilient, with MAUs/ DAUs logging 4% YoY/ 5% YoY to historical high of 714mn/ 408mn respectively and DTSPU reaching 132mins. Online ad revenue delivered 20% YoY, among which external ad grew at 30%+ YoY. eC GMV was resilient at 15% YoY with solid 12% YoY growth of 133m MAC. Overseas revenue reach RMB1.3bn. GPM expanded by 2.6ppts YoY to 54.3%. OPM was 10.0%, with 11.8% domestic OPM and overseas operating loss narrowing to RMB(153)m. Non-IFRS NPM was 12.7%, in line with consensus. Co. commits to execute their 3-year HK$16bn buyback till mid-2027.3Q24 11% YoY topline and 12.7% adj. NPM both met streets' expectation. MAUs/ DAUs reach historical high of 714m/ 408m respectively. 20% YoY online ad and 15% YoY eC GMV were also in line with consensus. We see Co.'s core strategies of supply enrichments, monetisation explorations & enhancements, AI integrations and efficiency optimisations remain committed. While we expect increased subsidies of short play & eCommerce in the near to medium-term for solidified user mindshare amid intensified competition, as well as dedicated AI investments. Maintain HOLD and PE-based TP of HK$50.0.
3季度24季度營業收入同比增長11%，經調整後的淨利潤率同比增長12.7%，均符合街頭預期。月活躍用戶數/日活躍用戶數分別達到歷史新高，分別爲7.14億/4,0800萬。同比增長20%的在線廣告和15%的電商交易總額也與市場共識相符。我們看到公司的核心策略包括供應豐富化、貨幣化探索和提升、人工智能整合以及效率優化仍然保持承諾。預計在短視頻和電商領域的補貼將會增加，在競爭加劇的情況下，以加強用戶的黏性，同時還會有針對人工智能的投資。保持持有評級，基於市盈率的目標價爲50.0港幣。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Dedicated core strategies; Increased investments. We deem Co.'s core strategies of i) supply (content, products & services) enrichments; ii) monetisations explorations and enhancements; iii) AI models' integrations into multi in-app scenarios; and iv) efficiency optimisations remain consistent. We expect Co. will dynamically adjust their eC strategies among multi consumption scenarios including streaming, short video, and pan shelf-based eC to maximise merchants ROI and monetisation capabilities leveraging their KOLs and AI capabilities. While we expect Co. will increase investments especially in short play and eCommerce in the near to medium-term to solidify supply and user mindshare amid intensified competition. Therefore, we maintain our FY2024- 26E total revenue unchanged but slightly cut our FY2025-26E eC GMV by 1%. We trim our FY2024E/25E/26E adj. EPS by 3%/12%/13% to mainly reflect increased subsidies on eCommerce and short play, as well as AI investments.
專注核心策略；增加投資。我們認爲公司的核心策略包括：i）供應（內容、產品和服務）的豐富化；ii）貨幣化的探索和提升；iii）人工智能模型在多種應用場景中的整合；以及iv）效率的優化均保持一致。我們預計公司將會動態調整他們的電商策略，包括視頻流媒體、短視頻和基於全渠道電商，以最大化商戶的回報率和貨幣化能力，充分利用其KOLs和人工智能能力。我們預計公司將會在短期和中期增加投資，特別是在短視頻和電商領域，以鞏固供應和用戶黏性，應對日益激烈的競爭。因此，我們保持2024年至2026年全年總營收不變，但稍微削減了2025年至2026年的電商交易總額1%。我們將2024年至2026年的調整後每股收益分別下調了3%/12%/13%，主要是反映了對電商和短視頻的補貼增加，以及人工智能投資。
3Q24 financials inline with solid user metrics. Total revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB31.1bn, in line with consensus and BOCIe. User metrics were resilient, with MAUs/ DAUs logging 4% YoY/ 5% YoY to historical high of 714mn/ 408mn respectively and DTSPU reaching 132mins. Online ad revenue delivered 20% YoY, among which external ad grew at 30%+ YoY. eC GMV was resilient at 15% YoY with solid 12% YoY growth of 133m MAC. Overseas revenue reach RMB1.3bn. GPM expanded by 2.6ppts YoY to 54.3%. OPM was 10.0%, with 11.8% domestic OPM and overseas operating loss narrowing to RMB(153)m. Non-IFRS NPM was 12.7%, in line with consensus. Co. commits to execute their 3-year HK$16bn buyback till mid-2027.
第3季度24財務狀況與強勁的用戶指標相符。總營收同比增長11%達到311億元人民幣，符合市場共識和中銀國際的預期。用戶指標表現堅挺，月活躍用戶數/日活躍用戶數同比分別增長4%/5%至歷史最高水平，分別爲7.14億和4.08億，DTSPU達到132分鐘。在線廣告收入同比增長20%，其中外部廣告同比增長30%以上。電商交易總額同比增長15%，13300萬MAC增長12%。境外營收達到13億元人民幣。毛利率同比擴大2.6個百分點至54.3%。運營利潤率爲10.0%，國內運營利潤率爲11.8%，境外運營虧損縮減至1.53億元人民幣。非IFRS淨利潤率爲12.7%，符合市場共識。公司承諾執行到2027年中旬的160億港幣的3年回購計劃。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Upside risks: 1) monetisations ramp up of AI and new initiatives; 2) domestic consumption recovery; 3) increased shareholder return initiatives.
上行風險：1）AI和新舉措的貨幣化加速；2）國內消費恢復；3）增加股東回報舉措。
Downside risks: 1) regulations; 2) intensified competition; 3) slower-than- expected macro recovery; 4) ineffective strategy executions; 5) content supply and source; 6) ineffective monetisation; 7) main shareholders' divestiture.
下行風險：1）監管；2）競爭加劇；3）宏觀復甦低於預期；4）策略執行不力；5）內容供應與來源；6）貨幣化效果不佳；7）主要股東減持。
Valuation
估值
We roll over our TP to use 2025 PER. Maintain HOLD and TP of HK$50.0 on 9.0x FY2025E (generated by selected China Internet online ad and eCommerce peers) adj. EPS of HKD5.60.
我們將目標價延續至2025年市盈率。保持持有評級，目標價爲50.0港元，基於所選中國互聯網在線廣告和電子商務同行的2025財年預期每股收益調整後爲5.60港元的9.0倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
