With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.8x PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 36x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
Recent times have been advantageous for PulteGroup as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For PulteGroup?
PulteGroup's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 10% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 117% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 1.4% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that PulteGroup is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of PulteGroup's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for PulteGroup you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
