萨默斯指出，“如果这些计划真的得到实施，那么特朗普政策对通胀的刺激力度要远远大于拜登总统制定的任何计划，这一点我毫不怀疑。”Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the economic policies of the Trump administration may trigger severe inflation shocks. He emphasized two main concerns about the proposed economic agenda: massive demand-side stimulus and severe supply-side disruptions. Summers pointed out that if the Trump policies are fully implemented, the stimulus for inflation will far exceed any plans set by President Biden.
Former USA Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers mentioned in a recent interview that the Trump administration is expected to cause serious damage to the economy. He warned that the proposed economic policies could lead to more severe inflation shocks.
Key components of Trump's economic policy include extensive tax cuts, potential expansion of the budget deficit, and comprehensive tariff implementation. In an interview, Summers emphasized two main concerns about the proposed economic agenda: the first is massive demand-side stimulus, and the second is severe supply-side disruptions.
Summers stated, "If these plans are truly implemented, then the stimulus of Trump's policies on inflation will be far greater than any plan established by President Biden, I have no doubt about this."
Stimulate soaring inflation.
The main inflation risks mentioned by Summers include: first, extensive tax cuts may expand the federal budget deficit; second, comprehensive tariffs could significantly increase the costs of foreign and imported goods; additionally, potential large-scale illegal immigration expulsion plans will lead to labor shortages.
Previously, Goldman Sachs' economic analysis also supported Summers' concerns. The large bank estimates that a 10% tariff imposed nationwide in the US could push the inflation rate back to 3%, raise the core personal consumption expenditure inflation rate by 0.9-1.2 percentage points, and have a severe impact on the US GDP.
Currently, market indicators still show resilience. However, Summers believes, "The market fluctuates, but it cannot predict inflation very well."
Potential economic shifts are occurring in a complex fiscal situation, with the US federal budget deficit expected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2024, approaching a debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 120%.
Summers also emphasized the potential systemic risks, and warned that special economic agreements could disrupt rule-based market economies, which have historically supported strong valuations in the US stock market.
Earlier in November, Summers mentioned in a media interview, "If Trump insists on fulfilling the promises made during the campaign period, then this country will suffer a larger inflation crisis than in 2021." The US CPI index began to rise rapidly in the spring of 2021, eventually reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022.
Editor/Rocky
