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Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

2025年石油价格展望,以及智能能源股票
The Motley Fool ·  11/26 10:00

The current year hasn't been great for oil prices. They experienced a climb in the first few months of the year, but since then, it has mostly been a downward slump. The current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is about US$15 lower compared to its five-year peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has cut its original outlook for 2025 by US$6.5 per barrel. Even though the estimated price is higher than the current WTI price per barrel, it doesn't look very promising.

当前年份对油价来说并不太好。今年头几个月经历了一波上涨,但此后大多数时间都是下跌。目前的西德克萨斯中质原油比其五年高点低约15美元。美国能源信息管理局将2025年原始预测每桶油下调了6.5美元。尽管预估价格高于目前每桶西德克萨斯原油价格,但前景看起来并不十分乐观。

Even more troubling is the forecast about lower oil demand. Geopolitical variables may also influence the price. Some can push the price down further, while others may push it well beyond the estimates.

更令人担忧的是对较低石油需求的预测。地缘政治变量也可能影响价格。一些因素可能进一步推低价格,而另一些可能将其推至远超预估。

A wild card variable is any breakthrough in battery technology or hydrogen, which makes zero-emission vehicles more financially feasible and practical — something like that can decimate oil demand, at least for a while.

电池技术或氢技术取得突破,这些是零排放车辆变得更加经济实用的关键,类似的情况可能会严重削弱对石油的需求,至少在一段时间内。

With that in mind, it's prudent to be careful with your choices for the energy stocks.

考虑到这一点,对于能源股,谨慎选择是明智的。

A midstream stock

一只中游股。

Enbridge (TSX:ENB) is not just Canada's midstream giant but one of the largest pipeline companies in the world. It's also rapidly growing its natural gas utility businesses, which further solidifies its overall business model. This makes its revenues quite stable and less vulnerable to price fluctuations than upstream or even downstream businesses. This, in turn, makes its dividends more financially stable and reliable.

恩桥(tsx:ENB)不仅是加拿大的中游巨头,也是全球最大的管道公司之一。其还在快速发展其天然气公用事业业务,进一步巩固了其整体业务模式。这使得其收入非常稳定,比起上游甚至下游业务更不易受价格波动影响。这反过来使得其分红更加稳定可靠。

The business model, dividend sustainability, and stellar dividend history (29 consecutive years of dividend growth) collectively make Enbridge one of the safest stocks you can buy in this oil price uncertainty environment. The 6.1% dividend yield is also a compelling reason to buy this stock.

其业务模式、分红可持续性以及辉煌的分红历史(连续29年的分红增长)使得恩桥在这种石油价格不确定环境下成为您可以购买的最安全的股票之一。6.1%的股息率也是购买这只股票的一个引人注目的理由。

While growth/capital appreciation potential isn't a strong suit for this stock, it is quite bullish right now. It has grown 19% in the last six months. In contrast, the TSX Energy Index slipped about 5% over the same period. This further endorses Enbridge's ability to remain resilient even when the rest of the sector is weak.

虽然增长/资本升值潜力并非该股票的强项,但目前看来相当乐观。过去六个月增长了19%。相比之下,tsx 能源指数在同期下降了约5%。这进一步证实了恩桥在整个行业疲弱时仍能保持弹性的能力。

An upstream stock

一个上游股票

Parex Resources (TSX:PXT) is currently one of the most heavily discounted energy stocks in Canada, which is surprising since most upstream stocks enjoyed a solid bull market phase while this stock slipped.

Parex Resources (tsx:PXT)目前是加拿大最被严重低估的能源股之一,这让人感到惊讶,因为大多数上游股票都在牛市中表现强劲,而这支股票却滑落了。

Even though it's turning things around, it's still trading at a 48% discount from its five-year peak. Despite a weak oil price outlook, this discount and its undervaluation are among the most compelling reasons to buy this stock.

尽管它正在扭转局面,但其股价仍比五年前的高点低48%。尽管油价前景疲软,但这一折扣及其低估值是购买该股票的最具吸引力的原因之一。

Another reason is the incredibly high dividend yield. The company is currently paying dividends at a yield of about 10.3%, and the payout ratio of 44% is rock solid, making its dividends highly desirable. If the company starts recovering from its current fall, you might also get returns from its growth.

另一个原因是令人难以抗拒的高股息率。该公司目前以约10.3%的比率支付股息,44%的支付比率非常稳定,使其股息非常可取。如果公司开始摆脱目前的低谷,您还可以从其增长中获利。

Foolish takeaway

愚蠢的结论

The energy sector is going through a rough phase around the globe. Part of it is the worldwide switch to renewables. Geo-political factors like tensions involving major oil producers and importers and leadership changes can also exacerbate the situation. With this many concerning variables in the equation, stocks like Enbridge and Parex may be healthy picks for a wide range of investors.

全球能源行业正经历艰难时期。其中一部分原因是全球向可再生能源的转变。地缘政治因素,如涉及主要石油生产国和进口国的紧张局势以及领导层更迭,也可能加剧局势。在这么多令人担忧的变量中,类似恩桥和Parex这样的股票可能是广泛投资者的健康选择。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


以上内容仅用作资讯或教育之目的,不构成与富途相关的任何投资建议。富途竭力但不能保证上述全部内容的真实性、准确性和原创性。
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