Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Analysts at Bernstein, a financial services company, said that with Donald Trump returning to the White House as the newly elected president of the usa, investors have reason to be optimistic about the stocks of usa defense contractors.

Analyst Grass Harned at Bernstein said on Monday: "We expect Trump to seek a strong defense like in his first term, even if he tries to avoid involvement in overseas conflicts. Trump has been outspoken about the need for a strong nuclear deterrent, missile defense, and expanding space capabilities."

A key concern is that $Tesla (TSLA.US)$DOGE, co-led by CEO and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, will seek to reduce defense costs. Bernstein said that this concern has led usa defense stocks to underperform the large cap in the 20 days after the US election.

Harned stated: "But so far, we have not seen any statements from Elon Musk indicating that there are significant issues with major defense contractors." "So far, methods of cost reduction seem to focus on management expenses (we even have doubts about this). There are some goals related to simplifying contracts and bringing more commercial competition (like SpaceX)."

Trump announced the nomination of Russell Vought as director of the Office of Management and Budget. Harned stated that if Vought seeks spending limits, it may raise concerns. Vought led the Office of Management and Budget during Trump's first term and is also a co-author of the government reform plan 'Project 2025.'

Bernstein noted that in 2017, the first year of Trump's presidency, defense stocks rose sharply.

Harned stated: "The previous administration also significantly lowered corporate taxes, but this time it hasn’t. However, there is a positive factor this time, which is unusually strong export demand. Even if the Ukraine issue is temporarily resolved, we expect that defense companies in usa and europe will still benefit from Europe's response to the threat from Russia."

Editor / jayden