'It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year' For The Stock Market, History Says
'It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year' For The Stock Market, History Says
Since 1928, the S&P 500 index — as tracked by the When Andy Williams released the song "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year" on his first 1963 Christmas album, the S&P 500 was singing a bullish tune of its own. The index had just hit a record high of 74 points, shaking off the scars of the 1962 bear market.
當安迪·威廉姆斯在他的1963年首張聖誕專輯中發行歌曲"It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year"時，標普500指數正在唱着自己的看漲曲調。該指數剛剛創下74點的紀錄高位，擺脫了1962年熊市的陰影。
Fast-forward 61 years, and history looks ready to rhyme: the U.S. stock market is again trading at all-time highs as the holiday season ushers in what has historically been a joyful period for investors.
快進61年，歷史看起來準備要押韻：美國股市再次在節日季節創下歷史新高，投資者歷來會在這個喜慶時期迎來快樂。
If history is any guide, the next five weeks could be a strong, if not the best, time of the year for U.S. equities.
如果歷史能提供任何指引，接下來的五週可能是美國股市的一個強勁時段，如果不是最好的時段。
December: A Tradition Of Holiday Cheer On Wall Street
12月：華爾街傳統的節日氣氛
Since 1928, the S&P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — has averaged a 1.25% gain during the month, making it the second-best performer of the year, behind only July.
自1928年以來，標普500指數 — 由SPDR標普500 ETF trust (NYSE:SPY) 跟蹤 — 在該月份平均上漲了1.25%，成爲該年度績效第二好的月份，僅次於7月。
But here's the kicker: when you include the final week of November, the stock market truly enters its most wonderful time of the year for investors.
但這才是關鍵：當你將11月的最後一週也算在內時，股市的確進入了對投資者來說最美好的一年時光。
"I think that U.S. equities will rally starting next week into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 hitting 6,200," Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner said last Friday.
"我認爲美國股市將在下週開始反彈，直至年底，標普500指數將達到6,200點，" 高盛分析師斯科特·魯伯納上週五表示。
"We are entering the best seasonal period of the year for U.S. equities," he added.
"我們正在進入美國股市一年中最好的季節，" 他補充道。
Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to record highs on Monday, driven by investor optimism following reports of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon that eased geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
標普500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數週一大漲至創紀錄高位，受投資者樂觀情緒推動，因傳出以色列和黎巴嫩之間停火協議的報道，緩解了中東地區的地緣政治擔憂。
The Thanksgiving Week's Effect
感恩節周效應
Thanksgiving week itself has a solid track record of lifting the S&P 500.
感恩節周本身有着提振標普500指數的堅實記錄。
According to Stephen Suttmeier, a Bank of America analyst and market technician, the index has risen 60% of the time during Thanksgiving week since 1928, delivering an average return of 0.28%, or 0.46% median.
根據美國銀行分析師兼市場技術分析師斯蒂芬·薩特邁爾的說法，自1928年以來，感恩節周標普500指數的上漲率爲60%，平均回報率爲0.28%，或中位數爲0.46%。
In a note shared to clients on Monday, Suttmeier highlighted that in the period from Thanksgiving through the end of the year, the S&P 500 has climbed 71% of the time, with an average return of 1.46%, or 1.70% median.
薩特邁爾在週一向客戶分享的一份備忘錄中指出，從感恩節到年底這段時期，標普500指數的上漲概率爲71%，平均回報率爲1.46%，或中位數爲1.70%。
"Thanksgiving into year-end SPX seasonality is strong for all years and in Presidential election years," Suttmeier wrote.
薩特邁爾寫道：「感恩節到年末的標普500季節性對所有年份以及總統大選年份都有良好表現。」
| Indicator | Thanksgiving week | Thanksgiving through Dec. 31 |
Thanksgiving week (Presidential election years) |
Thanksgiving through Dec. 31 (Presidential election years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 0.28% | 1.46% | 0.88% | 1.38% |
| Median | 0.46% | 1.70% | 1.08% | 1.6% |
| % Time positive | 60.42% | 70.83% | 75% | 75% |
| 指標 | 感恩節周 | 感恩節期間 Dec. 31 |
感恩節周 （總統選舉年） |
感恩節期間 Dec. 31 （總統選舉年） |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 平均 | 0.28% | 1.46% | 0.88% | 1.38% |
| 中位數 | 0.46% | 1.70% | 1.08% | 1.6% |
| % 正面時間 | 60.42% | 70.83% | 75% | 75% |
Election Years Also Show Solid Year-End S&P 500 Returns
選舉年份也顯示出標準普爾500指數堅實的年末回報
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted gains in 75% of election-year Thanksgiving weeks, with an average return of 0.88% or 1.08% median.
自1928年以來，標準普爾500指數在選舉年感恩節週上漲了75%，平均回報率爲0.88%，或中位數爲1.08%。
The post-Thanksgiving to year-end period has also delivered the goods, with the index rising 75% of the time, delivering an average return of 1.38%, or 1.6% median.
感恩節後到年底期間也是表現出色的，指數上漲的時間爲75%，平均回報率爲1.38%，或中位數爲1.6%。
As investors dig into their turkey this Thanksgiving, they might also consider digging into some U.S. equities.
在感恩節期間享用火雞的投資者們，可能也考慮投資一些美國股票。
After all, history suggests that the combination of optimism, holiday spending and year-end portfolio adjustments could be the season of giving — at least on Wall Street.
畢竟，歷史表明，樂觀情緒、假日消費和年底組合調整可能是給予之季 — 至少在華爾街上。
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Photo: Unsplash
照片：Unsplash
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
