Is Gap (NYSE:GAP) A Risky Investment?
Is Gap (NYSE:GAP) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GAP) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
大衛·伊本說得很好:'波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。' 當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用,因爲債務負擔過重可能導致破產。重要的是,Gap公司(紐交所:GAP)確實有債務。那麼,股東應該擔心它的債務使用嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務對一家企業有所幫助,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是通過新的資本還是通過自由現金流。如果情況變得非常糟糕,放貸人可以接管企業。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦的)場景是,企業需要以低價募集新的股本資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,有很多公司使用債務來支持增長,沒有任何負面影響。考慮企業使用的債務量時,首先要做的是查看其現金和債務的總和。
What Is Gap's Debt?
Gap的債務是多少?
As you can see below, Gap had US$1.49b of debt, at November 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. But on the other hand it also has US$2.22b in cash, leading to a US$730.0m net cash position.
如您所見,截至2024年11月,Gap的債務爲14.9億美元,與去年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表以獲取更詳細的信息。 另一方面,它還有22.2億美元的現金,導致其淨現金頭寸爲73000萬美元。
A Look At Gap's Liabilities
審視Gap的負債
According to the last reported balance sheet, Gap had liabilities of US$3.33b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$5.39b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$2.22b as well as receivables valued at US$289.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.21b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最近報告的資產負債表,Gap的負債爲33.3億美金,12個月內到期的負債爲53.9億美金,並且有22.2億美金的現金,以及價值28900萬美金的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收款相加的金額多62.1億美金。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$9.36b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Gap's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Gap boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
與其市場資本化的93.6億美金相比,這一赤字相當可觀,因此確實提示股東應關注Gap的債務使用情況。這表明如果公司需要迅速鞏固其資產負債表,股東將受到嚴重稀釋。儘管Gap負債突出,但其淨現金狀況良好,因此可以公平地說,它並沒有巨額的債務負擔!
Even more impressive was the fact that Gap grew its EBIT by 177% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Gap's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
更令人印象深刻的是,Gap的EBIT在十二個月內增長了177%。如果能夠維持這種增長,未來幾年債務將變得更加可管理。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是關注的重點。但未來的收益,尤其是,將決定Gap未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這個關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Gap has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Gap actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最後,業務需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法滿足這一需求。雖然Gap的資產負債表上有淨現金,但查看其將稅前利潤(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力仍然值得關注,以幫助我們理解它建設(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。令人高興的是,Gap在過去兩年實際上產生的自由現金流超過了EBIT。這種強勁的現金轉化讓我們像在Daft Punk音樂會的節拍到來時一樣激動!
Summing Up
總之
While Gap does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$730.0m. The cherry on top was that in converted 149% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$1.1b. So is Gap's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Gap .
雖然Gap的負債超過流動資產,但它的淨現金也達到了73000萬美元。 最令人欣慰的是,它將149%的EBIT轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了11億美元的收入。 那麼Gap的債務是風險嗎?我們認爲並不是。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中對債務的了解最多。 然而,並不是所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。 爲此,你應該注意到我們發現的Gap的1個警告信號。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。
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