UOB Raises Singapore's 2024 Growth Forecast to 3.5% on Trade Strength
UOB Raises Singapore's 2024 Growth Forecast to 3.5% on Trade Strength
The 2024 forecast matches the Ministry of Trade and Industry's (MTI) estimate of around 3.5%, whilst the 2025 forecast falls within MTI's 1%-3% range.However, its 2025 forecast was downgraded to 2.5% amidst external risks.
然而，其2025年的預測在外部風險中被下調至2.5%。
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research raised its 2024 growth forecast for Singapore to 3.5%, driven by strong growth in trade-related sectors during Q3.
大華銀行全球經濟與市場研究將新加坡2024年的增長預測提高到3.5%，這主要受到第三季度貿易相關行業強勁增長的推動。
However, it lowered the 2025 growth forecast to 2.5% from the previous 2.9% due to external risks like geopolitical tensions and a potential slowdown in the electronics sector.
然而，由於地緣政治緊張局勢和電子行業可能放緩等外部風險，它將2025年的增長預測從此前的2.9%下調至2.5%。
The 2024 forecast matches the Ministry of Trade and Industry's (MTI) estimate of around 3.5%, whilst the 2025 forecast falls within MTI's 1%-3% range.
2024年的預測與貿易和工業部(MTI)的估計大致爲3.5%相符，而2025年的預測落在MTI的1%-3%區間內。
UOB cited several factors for its 2025 forecast, including the timing and impact of potential U.S. tariffs under Trump, geopolitical tensions, a possible slowdown in the electronics cycle, and the pace at which central banks ease interest rates.
大華銀行列舉了幾種因素來支持其2025年的預測，包括特朗普政府潛在關稅的時機和影響、地緣政治緊張局勢、電子週期可能放緩，以及中央銀行放寬利率期貨的速度。
However, falling interest rates could help mitigate some of the slowdown by encouraging more business and consumer loans whilst boosting trading activity.
然而，利率期貨的下降可能有助於通過鼓勵更多的業務和消費貸款來緩解一些放緩，同時推動交易活動的增加。
Meanwhile, activity in tourism-related sectors is expected to slow as the boost from post-pandemic pent-up demand fades.
與此同時，預計與旅遊相關的行業板塊活動會放緩，因爲疫情後被壓抑的需求的好處逐漸減弱。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
