We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that THOR Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地說:'波動性遠非等同於風險。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多危險時,我們總是喜歡查看其債務的使用,因爲債務過重可能導致破產。我們注意到,索爾工業公司(紐交所代碼:THO)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。但這筆債務對股東來說是個問題嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般來說,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題,要麼通過籌集資本,要麼通過自身現金流。資本主義的一個重要組成部分是「創造性毀滅」過程,失敗的企業會被其銀行家無情清算。然而,更頻繁發生的情況是一家公司必須以低於市價的價格發行股份,從而永久地稀釋股東,以鞏固其資產負債表。然而,債務可以替代股權稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資於增長的企業來說,債務是一個極好的工具。當我們考慮一家公司使用債務時,我們首先要看現金和債務合計。
What Is THOR Industries's Debt?
索爾工業公司的債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that THOR Industries had debt of US$1.13b at the end of July 2024, a reduction from US$1.30b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$501.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$632.6m.
下圖可以點擊以獲取更詳細信息,顯示索爾工業在2024年7月底的債務爲11.3億美元,比一年前的13億美元有所減少。另一方面,它有現金50130萬美元,導致淨債務約爲63260萬美元。
How Strong Is THOR Industries' Balance Sheet?
索爾工業的資產負債表有多強?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that THOR Industries had liabilities of US$1.57b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.38b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$501.3m as well as receivables valued at US$700.9m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.74b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
深入分析最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到索爾工業的負債爲15.7億美元,需在12個月內償還,且負債爲13.8億美元,需在此之後償還。抵消這些義務,它有50130萬美元的現金和70090萬美元的應收賬款,需在12個月內償還。因此,它的負債比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出17.4億美元。
THOR Industries has a market capitalization of US$5.75b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
索爾工業的市值爲57.5億美元,因此如果有需要,它很可能能夠籌集現金來改善其資產負債表。然而,仔細觀察其還債能力依然是值得的。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們使用兩個主要比率來了解債務相對於收入的水平。首先是淨債務除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),而第二個是其稅前利潤(EBIT)可以覆蓋利息支出的倍數(或簡稱爲利息覆蓋率)。 這種方法的優勢在於我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨債務與EBITDA)又考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(利息覆蓋比)。
While THOR Industries's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.90 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.8 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Shareholders should be aware that THOR Industries's EBIT was down 28% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if THOR Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
雖然索爾工業的低債務與EBITDA比率爲0.90表明其債務使用相對溫和,但去年的EBIT僅能覆蓋利息支出4.8倍,這讓我們有些猶豫。因此,我們建議密切關注融資成本對業務的影響。股東應注意到,索爾工業的EBIT去年下降了28%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續,那麼償還債務就像將貓趕上過山車一樣困難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是切入的地方。但最終,業務未來的盈利能力將決定索爾工業是否能夠隨着時間的推移鞏固其資產負債表。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,展示分析師的盈利預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, THOR Industries recorded free cash flow worth 76% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
但我們最終的考量也很重要,因爲公司不能用紙面利潤來支付債務;它需要現金。 所以我們總是檢查EBIt的多少轉化爲自由現金流。在最近三年中,索爾工業的自由現金流佔其EBIt的76%,這在正常範圍內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅。 這筆現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
THOR Industries's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about THOR Industries's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for THOR Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.
索爾工業的EBIt增長率在這項分析中確實是一個負面因素,儘管我們考慮的其他因素則明顯更好。 毫無疑問,其將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的能力相當出色。觀看所有這些數據讓我們對索爾工業的債務水平感到有些謹慎。 雖然債務確實在潛在回報更高方面有其好處,但我們認爲股東絕對應該考慮債務水平如何可能使股票更具風險性。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個開始的地方。然而,並不是所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。 例如,我們發現了一個關於索爾工業的警告信號,在投資之前你應該注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。
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