Markets Misread Trump Win, Says Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: 'Prospects Of Tariffs Not Good For Equities'
Markets Misread Trump Win, Says Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: 'Prospects Of Tariffs Not Good For Equities'
As the U.S. dollar scaled a fresh 52-week high on Friday morning at 108.071 level, former Goldman Sachs FX strategist and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Robin Brooks said in an X (formerly Twitter) post that, "Markets initially got this wrong, driving stocks up sharply right after Nov. 5."
美元在週五早晨以108.071水平創下52周新高，前高盛外匯策略師、布魯金斯學會高級研究員羅賓·布魯克斯在X（前身爲Twitter）的發帖中表示：「市場最初對此誤解，導致股市在11月5日後急劇上漲。」
He added that "the prospect of tariffs isn't obviously good for equities, while it's clearly good for the Dollar. More Dollar strength is coming."
他補充說：「關稅的前景顯然對股票不利，但顯然有利於美元。更強勢美元即將到來。」
The Dollar (lhs) is now clearly outperforming S&P 500 (rhs). Markets initially got this wrong, driving stocks up sharply right after Nov. 5. But the prospect of tariffs isn't obviously good for equities, while it's clearly good for the Dollar. More Dollar strength is coming... pic.twitter.com/GEZr0IaDh8
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) November 22, 2024
美元（左）目前明顯表現優於標普500指數（右）。市場最初對此誤解，導致股市在11月5日後急劇上漲。但是關稅的前景顯然不利於股票，但顯然有利於美元。更強勢美元即將到來... pic.twitter.com/GEZr0IaDh8
—羅賓·布魯克斯（@robin_j_brooks）2024年11月22日
Also read: Gordon Johnson Slams Federal Reserve For Asset-Owner Centric Policies, Says Jerome Powell Needs To Focus On 'Real Economy': '...The Stock Market Will Be Fine'
另請閱讀：戈登·約翰遜抨擊聯儲局過於關注資產所有者，指出傑羅姆·鮑威爾需要關注「真實經濟」：「...股市會沒事的」
What Happened: A chart shared by Brooks compared the S&P 500 Index and the Dollar Index during President-elect Donald Trump's victory in 2016 and 2024. Measuring the performance of both indices from the day of the election on Nov. 5, the Dollar Index has risen by approximately 3.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which advanced 2.9%.
發生了什麼：布魯克斯分享的一張圖表比較了2016年和2024年當選總統的唐納德·特朗普時，標普500指數和美元指數的情況。從11月5日選舉日開始測量這兩個指數的表現，美元指數上漲約3.5%，表現優於上漲2.9%的標普500指數。
Why It Matters: An increase in tariffs reduces the demand for imported goods and lifts domestic prices above the free trade price, gradually stoking inflation. This results in monetary tightening affecting the equities in the long run.
爲什麼重要：關稅的增加會減少對進口商品的需求，並將國內價格提高到自由貿易價格之上，逐漸引起通脹。這導致貨幣收緊從而影響股票的長期走勢。
However, higher tariffs are positive for the domestic currency as its supply decreases and more money flows into the economy.
然而，更高的關稅對國內貨幣是積極的，因爲貨幣供應減少並且更多資金流入經濟。
What Are Other Analysts Saying: Now that the Dollar Index has surpassed its previous 52-week high of 107.07, "a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 acting as a support," said Kunal Sodhani, vice president of the global trading center at Shinhan Bank.
其他分析師的看法：現在美元指數已經突破了其上一週52周最高點107.07，「如果突破該水平，則可能會測試108.60，而105.10將充當支撐點，」信漢銀行全球交易中心副總裁庫納爾·索達尼表示。
According to him, "the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combined with the strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious rhetoric on interest rate cuts, may push the U.S. Dollar to new highs"
據他說，「中東地區持續存在的地緣政治緊張局勢，加上美國強勁的經濟數據以及聯儲局在減息方面謹慎的言論，可能會推動美元創下新高」
As of Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) had gained 25.60% year-to-date, while the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw a 25.43% increase, according to Benzinga Pro. Despite these strong returns, both ETFs were slightly down in pre-market trading on Friday.
截至上週五，標普500 ETF信託基金（NYSE:SPY）今年以來漲幅25.60%，而英寸台 QQQ 信託一號（NASDAQ:QQQ）漲幅25.43%，根據彭博專業版的數據。儘管這兩隻 ETF 回報率強勁，但在上週五的美股盤前交易中略有下跌。
Meanwhile, the futures show a decline across major indices: Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.40%, Dow Jones down 0.29%, and R2K down 0.08%.
與此同時，期貨合約顯示主要指數下跌：納斯達克100 指數下跌0.51%，標普500 指數下跌0.40%，道瓊斯指數下跌0.29%，而 R0.2萬 指數下跌0.08%。
Read next: Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
閱讀下一篇：地緣政治緊張局勢、聯儲局謹慎態度及堅實的美國經濟數據支撐美元走強，專家表示
Image via Wikimedia Commons
圖片來自Wikimedia Commons
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
