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Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket

Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket

資產管理人表示,隨着美國經濟增長和收益放緩,"昂貴"市場可能迎來"健康修正":標普500指數、納斯達克期貨在盤前交易下跌
Benzinga ·  11/22 19:06

Ahead of the potential market correction, Brian Arcese from Foord Asset Management has highlighted concerns over the U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. These factors could trigger a correction if they continue to slow down.

在潛在的市場調整之前,Foord資產管理的Brian Arcese已經提出了對美國經濟增長和公司盈利的擔憂。如果這些因素繼續放緩,可能會引發一次調整。

What Happened: Arcese warned that a market correction could occur if U.S. GDP or earnings growth slows. Arcese noted that the S&P 500 has been "expensive for quite a while," with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 27, CNBC reported on Friday.

發生了什麼:Arcese警告稱,如果美國國內生產總值或盈利增長放緩,市場可能會出現調整。Arcese指出,標普500指數已經"相當長時間"昂貴,根據CNBC週五的報道,市盈率超過27。

"We do think that a correction would be healthy, but you will need some type of catalyst for that correction to take place," he said, highlighting two potential catalysts for a correction: slowing economic growth and inflation increases.

"我們認爲調整是有益的,但您需要某種催化劑來引發調整",他說道,強調了兩個潛在的調整催化劑:經濟增長放緩和通貨膨脹增加。

U.S. GDP growth was less than anticipated in the third quarter, and inflation rose to 2.6% in October, as per recent data. He emphasized that high corporate earnings expectations, particularly outside IT and communication services, could also trigger a correction if growth slows.

美國國內生產總值增長在第三季度低於預期,通貨膨脹在十月份上漲至2.6%,根據最新數據。他強調,高預期的公司盈利,特別是在It和通訊服務板塊之外,如果增長放緩,也可能引發一次調整。

Arcese remarked on the unusual combination of factors like GDP growth, earnings growth, and falling inflation and interest rates, which he described as rare. He noted that while utilities are more expensive than before, they remain less costly than the broader market, with growth driven by increased electricity demand from data centers and AI advancements.

Arcese提到了諸如GDP增長、盈利增長以及通貨膨脹率和利率的下降等因素的不尋常組合,他認爲這是罕見的。他指出,雖然公用事業部門比以往更昂貴,但它們仍然比整體市場便宜,增長受數據中心和人工智能進展推動的電力需求增加。

Why It Matters: The concerns raised by Arcese align with recent warnings from other financial experts. David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, recently labeled the current market as "the most expensive of all time," citing the high Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.

爲何重要:Arcese提出的擔憂與其他金融專家最近發出的警告相一致。最近,Greenlight Capital的創始人David Einhorn稱當前市場爲"有史以來最昂貴的市場",他引用了高Shiller循環調整市盈率。

Similarly, Stifel's Barry Bannister predicted a 12% market drop by the end of 2024, driven by high valuations and speculative risks. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple is nearing historic highs, reminiscent of previous market peaks.

同樣,Stifel的Barry Bannister預測到2024年年底市場將下跌12%,原因是高估值和投機風險。標普500指數的市盈率倍數接近歷史高點,讓人聯想起以往市場高峰。

Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs forecasts strong U.S. economic growth in 2025, with a 2.5% GDP boost, suggesting potential resilience in the face of current market challenges.

儘管存在這些擔憂,高盛預測2025年美國經濟增長強勁,GDP增長率爲2.5%,表明在當前市場挑戰面前可能具備潛在的韌性。

Price Action: As of Friday, according to Benzinga Pro, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) that tracks the S&P 500 closely witnessed a 25.60% increase in its year-to-date (YTD) returns while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw a hike of 25.43%. However, during pre-market hours on Friday, both the ETFs were trading slightly lower.

價格走勢:截至上週五,根據Benzinga Pro的數據,紐交所標普500ETF信託基金(紐交所:SPY)緊密跟蹤標普500指數,年初至今收益率增長了25.60%,而納斯達克100ETF信託基金第1系列(納斯達克:QQQ)漲幅爲25.43%。然而,在上週五盤前交易時間,兩隻ETF都略有下跌。

On Friday, futures show a decline across major indices: Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.40%, Dow Jones down 0.29%, and R2K down 0.08%.

週五,期貨表現下跌,主要指數如下:納斯達克100下跌0.51%,標普500下跌0.40%,道瓊斯下跌0.29%,和R0.2萬下跌0.08%。

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

免責聲明:本內容部分由Benzinga Neuro幫助製作,並經Benzinga編輯審查和發佈。

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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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