BYD ELECTRONIC(00285.HK):EXPECT STRONG GROWTH TO CONTINUE IN 2025 MAINTAIN "BUY"
BYD ELECTRONIC(00285.HK):EXPECT STRONG GROWTH TO CONTINUE IN 2025 MAINTAIN "BUY"
Driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology and the replacement cycle of mobile phones, we expect the demand for the Company's consumer electronics products to continue to grow in 2025. We also expect sales of the Company's smartphone components and parts to continue to rebound in 2025, thanks to the strong performance of emerging markets and the trend of upgrading high-end smartphone models.Maintain "Buy" and increase the target price to HK$38.60. We revise down BYD Electronic's (the "Company") 2024F-2026F EPS forecasts by 27.6%, 16.0% and 14.9% to RMB1.412, RMB2.140 and RMB2.574, respectively, reflecting a 12.8% CAGR. We increase our TP from HK$34.30 to HK$38.60, however, due to higher market and sector valuations. Out target price is equivalent to 2025F PE of 16.5x, which is a 10% premium to global peers' current market cap weighted average PE of 15.0x.
維持"買入"評級，目標價上調至38.60港元。我們將比亞迪電子（"公司"）2024F-2026F 每股收益預測下調27.6%、16.0%和14.9%，分別爲人民幣1.412元、人民幣2.140元和人民幣2.574元，反映出12.8%的年複合增長率。由於市場和板塊估值上升，我們將目標價從34.30港元上調至38.60港元。我們的目標價相當於2025F市盈率16.5倍，較全球同行當前市值加權平均市盈率15.0倍溢價10%。
1-9M2024 shareholders' profit was slightly below expectations due to lower than expected gross profit margin. The Company announced its unaudited results for the nine months ended 30 September 2024. Revenue in 1-9M2024 was RMB122.1 bn, up 32.5% yoy. However, gross profit for the period increased by just 14.7% yoy to RMB9.1 bn as gross profit margin declined slightly by 1.2 ppts to 7.4%. Shareholders' profit was almost flat, up 0.6% yoy to RMB3.1 bn.
2024年1-9月股東利潤略低於預期，主要由於毛利潤率低於預期。公司公佈了截至2024年9月30日的九個月未經審計的業績。2024年1-9月營業收入爲人民幣1221億元，同比增長32.5%。然而，該期間毛利潤僅同比增長14.7%，達到人民幣91億元，毛利潤率小幅下降1.2個百分點至7.4%。股東利潤幾乎持平，同比增長0.6%至人民幣31億元。
The decrease in gross profit margin was surprising since it had been previously expected that in 2024 the gross profit margin would improve due to the iPhone upgrade cycle.
毛利潤率的下降令人意外，因爲此前預期2024年毛利潤率會因iPhone升級週期而改善。
Driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology and the replacement cycle of mobile phones, we expect the demand for the Company's consumer electronics products to continue to grow in 2025. We also expect sales of the Company's smartphone components and parts to continue to rebound in 2025, thanks to the strong performance of emerging markets and the trend of upgrading high-end smartphone models.
受益於人工智能科技的快速發展和手機的更換週期，我們預計公司消費電子產品的需求將在2025年繼續增長。我們還預計，由於新興市場的強勁表現和高端智能手機型號升級的趨勢，公司智能手機元件和配件的銷售將在2025年繼續反彈。
Catalysts: 1) Improvement of production efficiency at Jabil plants; 2) shipment of AI server products; and 3) mass production of more new energy vehicle products.
催化劑：1）捷普科技工廠生產效率的提升；2）人工智能服務器產品的出貨；3）更多新能源車輛產品的量產。
Downside risks: 1) market competition may be more intense than expected; and 2) product line expansion may be slower-than-expected.
下行風險：1）市場競爭可能比預期更爲激烈；2）產品線擴展可能比預期速度慢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
