German Cannabis: 20 Tons, 10M Grams - And That's Only 0.3% Of The Market, What's Missing?
German Cannabis: 20 Tons, 10M Grams - And That's Only 0.3% Of The Market, What's Missing?
In Q3 2024, as importers rushed to build inventories, rejection rates likely increased, potentially resulting in pharmacies purchasing between 50% and 55% of imports. Germany's medical cannabis imports reached 20.1 tons in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from previous quarters. This surge follows the April 2024 revision of the country's narcotics law, which has facilitated greater access to medical cannabis.
德國的醫療大麻進口量在2024年第三季度達到了20.1噸，較以往季度大幅增長。這一激增是由於2024年4月德國毒品法的修訂，促進了對醫療大麻的更大獲取。
Despite this growth, medical cannabis users still represent less than 0.3% of the population, indicating significant potential for market expansion.
儘管增長，醫療大麻用戶仍然不到人口的0.3%，表明市場擴張有着巨大潛力。
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Rejection Rates And Market Dynamics
拒絕率與市場動態
Historically, approximately 40% of imported cannabis in Germany has been either rejected or re-exported, with pharmacies purchasing about 60% of imports, according to analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic and Associates.
根據分析師Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic and Associates的說法，德國約40%的進口大麻要麼被拒絕要麼被重新出口，藥房購買了約60%的進口量。
In Q3 2024, as importers rushed to build inventories, rejection rates likely increased, potentially resulting in pharmacies purchasing between 50% and 55% of imports.
在2024年第三季度，由於進口商急於建立庫存，拒絕率可能增加，導致藥房購買了進口量的50%至55%。
This suggests that out of the 20.1 tons imported, pharmacies acquired between 10 and 11 tons, doubling the levels seen before the April reforms.
這表明在進口的20.1噸中，藥房獲得了10至11噸，是四月改革之前的兩倍。
Shifts In Exporter Market Shares
出口商市場份額變化
Canada remains the largest supplier, exporting 8.1 tons to Germany in Q3 2024. However, its market share declined to 40% from 59% in Q1. Several Canadian companies actively operate in Germany's cannabis market, including Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ:ACB), Canopy Growth Corporation (NASDAQ:CGC), and Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY), leveraging their expertise in cultivation and distribution to meet the growing demand.
加拿大仍然是最大的供應國，在2024年第三季度向德國出口了8.1噸。然而，其市場份額從第一季度的59%下降到了40%。幾家加拿大公司積極在德國大麻股市場開展業務，包括Aurora Cannabis Inc.（納斯達克:ACB）、Canopy Growth Corporation（納斯達克:CGC）和Tilray Brands Inc.（納斯達克:TLRY），利用他們在種植和分銷方面的專業知識以滿足不斷增長的需求。
Portugal's share increased to 21%, with Denmark at 13%, and Spain and Uruguay each contributing 5%. Notably, the Netherlands' share dropped to 2% from 8% in 2023.
葡萄牙的份額增至21%，丹麥佔13%，西班牙和烏拉圭分別貢獻5%。值得注意的是，荷蘭的份額從2023年的8%下降到了2%。
Read Also: The U.S. Cannabis Strategy No One's Talking About: Inside Canopy's $300M Plan
另請閱讀：美國大麻策略無人談論：深入了解Canopy的30000萬計劃
Implications For The Market
市場的意義
The annualized value of Germany's medical cannabis market is estimated at €352 million (US$375 million). According to Zuanic, "With less than 0.3% of the population currently using medical cannabis, the market remains underdeveloped but has immense growth potential."
德國醫療大麻市場的年化價值估計爲€35200萬（美元37500萬）。根據Zuanic的說法，「目前不到0.3%的人口正在使用醫療大麻，市場仍然不發達，但具有巨大增長潛力。」
Zuanic explains that if Germany reaches a 1% penetration rate, similar to Canada's, "that would imply more than 4-5x upside." However, achieving this growth will require addressing key challenges. "More consistent and ample supplies across price and quality spectrums, new formats being allowed, and streamlined prescription systems."
Zuanic解釋稱，如果德國達到像加拿大一樣的1%滲透率，「這將意味着4-5倍的增長空間。」然而，要實現這種增長，需解決一些關鍵挑戰。「在各個價格和質量範圍內獲得更一致和充足的供應，允許新格式的使用，並簡化處方系統。」
Despite these hurdles, Zuanic says he is still optimistic. "It is still early days, but the German medical cannabis market could accelerate as these issues along the supply chain improve," he added, signaling the potential for significant expansion in this nascent market.
儘管有這些障礙，Zuanic表示他仍然樂觀。「現在仍處於早期階段，但隨着供應鏈中這些問題得到改喠，德國醫療大麻市場可能加速增長，」他補充說，表明這一新興市場存在巨大擴張潛力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
