German Cannabis: 20 Tons, 10M Grams - And That's Only 0.3% Of The Market, What's Missing?
German Cannabis: 20 Tons, 10M Grams - And That's Only 0.3% Of The Market, What's Missing?
In Q3 2024, as importers rushed to build inventories, rejection rates likely increased, potentially resulting in pharmacies purchasing between 50% and 55% of imports. Germany's medical cannabis imports reached 20.1 tons in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from previous quarters. This surge follows the April 2024 revision of the country's narcotics law, which has facilitated greater access to medical cannabis.
德国的医疗大麻进口量在2024年第三季度达到了20.1吨，较以往季度大幅增长。这一激增是由于2024年4月德国毒品法的修订，促进了对医疗大麻的更大获取。
Despite this growth, medical cannabis users still represent less than 0.3% of the population, indicating significant potential for market expansion.
尽管增长，医疗大麻用户仍然不到人口的0.3%，表明市场扩张有着巨大潜力。
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Rejection Rates And Market Dynamics
拒绝率与市场动态
Historically, approximately 40% of imported cannabis in Germany has been either rejected or re-exported, with pharmacies purchasing about 60% of imports, according to analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic and Associates.
根据分析师Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic and Associates的说法，德国约40%的进口大麻要么被拒绝要么被重新出口，药房购买了约60%的进口量。
In Q3 2024, as importers rushed to build inventories, rejection rates likely increased, potentially resulting in pharmacies purchasing between 50% and 55% of imports.
在2024年第三季度，由于进口商急于建立库存，拒绝率可能增加，导致药房购买了进口量的50%至55%。
This suggests that out of the 20.1 tons imported, pharmacies acquired between 10 and 11 tons, doubling the levels seen before the April reforms.
这表明在进口的20.1吨中，药房获得了10至11吨，是四月改革之前的两倍。
Shifts In Exporter Market Shares
出口商市场份额变化
Canada remains the largest supplier, exporting 8.1 tons to Germany in Q3 2024. However, its market share declined to 40% from 59% in Q1. Several Canadian companies actively operate in Germany's cannabis market, including Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ:ACB), Canopy Growth Corporation (NASDAQ:CGC), and Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY), leveraging their expertise in cultivation and distribution to meet the growing demand.
加拿大仍然是最大的供应国，在2024年第三季度向德国出口了8.1吨。然而，其市场份额从第一季度的59%下降到了40%。几家加拿大公司积极在德国大麻股市场开展业务，包括Aurora Cannabis Inc.（纳斯达克:ACB）、Canopy Growth Corporation（纳斯达克:CGC）和Tilray Brands Inc.（纳斯达克:TLRY），利用他们在种植和分销方面的专业知识以满足不断增长的需求。
Portugal's share increased to 21%, with Denmark at 13%, and Spain and Uruguay each contributing 5%. Notably, the Netherlands' share dropped to 2% from 8% in 2023.
葡萄牙的份额增至21%，丹麦占13%，西班牙和乌拉圭分别贡献5%。值得注意的是，荷兰的份额从2023年的8%下降到了2%。
Read Also: The U.S. Cannabis Strategy No One's Talking About: Inside Canopy's $300M Plan
另请阅读：美国大麻策略无人谈论：深入了解Canopy的30000万计划
Implications For The Market
市场的意义
The annualized value of Germany's medical cannabis market is estimated at €352 million (US$375 million). According to Zuanic, "With less than 0.3% of the population currently using medical cannabis, the market remains underdeveloped but has immense growth potential."
德国医疗大麻市场的年化价值估计为€35200万（美元37500万）。根据Zuanic的说法，“目前不到0.3%的人口正在使用医疗大麻，市场仍然不发达，但具有巨大增长潜力。”
Zuanic explains that if Germany reaches a 1% penetration rate, similar to Canada's, "that would imply more than 4-5x upside." However, achieving this growth will require addressing key challenges. "More consistent and ample supplies across price and quality spectrums, new formats being allowed, and streamlined prescription systems."
Zuanic解释称，如果德国达到像加拿大一样的1%渗透率，“这将意味着4-5倍的增长空间。”然而，要实现这种增长，需解决一些关键挑战。“在各个价格和质量范围内获得更一致和充足的供应，允许新格式的使用，并简化处方系统。”
Despite these hurdles, Zuanic says he is still optimistic. "It is still early days, but the German medical cannabis market could accelerate as these issues along the supply chain improve," he added, signaling the potential for significant expansion in this nascent market.
尽管有这些障碍，Zuanic表示他仍然乐观。“现在仍处于早期阶段，但随着供应链中这些问题得到改喠，德国医疗大麻市场可能加速增长，”他补充说，表明这一新兴市场存在巨大扩张潜力。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
