How to Profit From Airbnb's "Stuck" Share Price
How to Profit From Airbnb's "Stuck" Share Price
Airbnb (ABNB) is sitting in a wide range into its next earnings cycle in February and it seems reasonable that the price action might stay in that range.
愛彼迎(ABNB)在接下來的二月份收益週期中處於一個寬廣的區間,價格走勢可能會保持在這個區間內是合理的。
Here's the best trade to profit from that.
這是從中獲利的最佳交易。
The trade we're looking at today is a short iron condor expiring in January, 2025. Currently, ABNB's relative resistance zone sits right around $150, and relative support is near $330. So we want a trade that makes us money as long as ABNB shares stay in that $150-$330 range.
我們今天要看的交易是一個在2025年1月到期的開空鐵禿鷹。目前,ABNB的相對支撐位大約在$150,而相對壓力位接近$330。因此,我們希望有一筆交易,能夠在ABNB股票保持在$150-$330區間內時爲我們賺錢。
With that in mind, our short iron condor, a combination of a short call spread and a short put spread, looks like this:
考慮到這一點,我們的開空鐵禿鷹,結合了開空看漲價差和開空看跌價差,如下所示:
- Sell to open 1 ABNB 17 Jan 150 calls
- Buy to open 1 ABNB 17 Jan 155 calls
- Buy to open 1 ABNB 17 Jan 330 puts
- Sell to open 1 ABNB 17 Jan 320 puts
- 賣出1份ABNB 17 Jan 150看漲期權
- 買入1份ABNB 17 Jan 155看漲期權
- 買入1份ABNB 17 Jan 330看跌期權
- 賣出1份ABNB 17 Jan 320看跌期權
The short iron condor yields maximum profit when the share price of the underlying stock is equal to or between the strike prices of the "short" options (the ones you sell to open) on the day they expire.
短期鐵鷹的最大利潤出現在基礎股票的股價等於或位於"賣出"期權的行權價之間(即您賣出以開倉的期權)至到期日的那一天。
In other words, as long as shares of Airbnb trade between $150 and $320, this trade will yield its maximum profit. The total potential profit what we collect on the credit side which is $1.26 at this writing and the total risk is difference between the distance of the strikes and the credit collected ($5 – $1.26= $3.74).
換句話說,只要愛彼迎的股票交易在150美元到320美元之間,這筆交易將產生最大的利潤。我們在當前時刻收集的信用端的總潛在利潤爲1.26美元,總風險是行權差距與收集的信用之間的差值(5美元 – 1.26美元 = 3.74美元)。
People often ask why they should use a short iron condor when the risk is so much higher than the reward, and that answer comes to probabilities. The probability the prices move into our short strikes is currently 15% while the probability that we hold outside this region is 85%.
人們常常問,爲什麼要使用短期鐵鷹,儘管風險遠高於回報,而答案則與概率有關。目前,價格進入我們的短期行權價的概率爲15%,而我們持有在這個地域板塊之外的概率爲85%。
The strategy result provides only two choices to exit the trade:
該策略結果只提供兩種選擇以退出交易:
- To buy back the short iron condor when it is performing at your target parameters. I like the 50% profit range.
- To buy back the short iron condor when it hits either of the short strikes or hits the loss threshold that is desirable for you. Again, I like the 50% stop here.
- 當短期鐵鷹在您設定的目標參數下表現良好時,可以買回。我喜歡50%的利潤區間。
- 當短期鐵鷹觸及任一短期行權價或達到您希望的損失閾值時,可以買回。再一次,我喜歡在這裏設置50%的止損。
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Image via Shutterstock
圖片來源:shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。