2024Q3 净利润由负转正。2024Q3 单季度实现营收43.4 亿元，同比-42%/环比-4%；归母净利1.20 亿，扣非归母-1.97 亿。业绩出现压力主因：1）锂价仍处周期下行趋势，公司锂板块、电池板块销售价格下跌。2）公司所持有的Pilbara 股权产生公允价值变动。Key investment points
Ganfeng Lithium announced that the first phase of the company's Goulamina project in Mali has been completed and trial production has begun. It is expected to be officially put into operation in December this year. It will be one of the most important mining sources for the company in the future. Goulamina lithium resources reached 7.14 million tons LCE, with an average grade of 1.37%. The first phase design capacity was 0.506 million tons of lithium concentrate, equivalent to 0.063 million tons of LCE production capacity.
According to the project's deterministic feasibility study report, the Goulamina project's lithium concentrate C3 cost is estimated to be 378 US dollars/ton, and it is still highly competitive under current lithium prices.
2024Q3 net profit changed from negative to positive. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 4.34 billion yuan in a single quarter, or -42% YoY/-4% month-on-month; net profit of 0.12 billion yuan to mother, net profit of 0.12 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother. The main reason for the pressure on performance: 1) Lithium prices are still on a downward cyclical trend, and sales prices in the company's lithium sector and battery sector have declined. 2) The fair value of Pilbara's shares held by the company results in a change in fair value.
Total revenue for the first three quarters was 13.93 billion yuan, or -46% year over year; net profit to mother was -0.64 billion yuan, which turned into a year-on-year loss; after deducting non-return to mother -0.36 billion yuan, the year-on-year loss was converted.
Lithium prices were -27% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend
The average price of 2024Q3 lithium carbonate was 0.0807 million yuan/ton, -67% YoY/-27% YoY. The average price of 2024Q3 lithium hydroxide was 0.0824 million yuan/ton, -65% YoY/-18% YoY. Since the peak and fall back in Q4 of 2022, lithium prices have been adjusted for seven quarters and have gradually entered the bottom range.
The progress of the company's important projects
CO Salt Lake: Production climbed smoothly, maintaining the original production guidelines. CO Salt Lake produced 6800 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024Q3, +21% month-on-month. Q1-3 produced a total of 0.0169 million tons of LCE. The project has climbed to 75-80% capacity, maintaining the 2024 0.02-0.025 million ton LCE production guideline.
Mt Marion lithium mine: active contraction, cost reduction. In response to the continued slump in lithium prices, the Mt Marion project chose active contraction to reduce costs and improve risk resilience. 24Q3 produced 0.136 million tons of concentrate, -24% month-on-month. The full-year production guide was 0.3-0.34 million tons of SC6.0 lithium concentrate, and the FOB cost was 870-970 Australian dollars/ton.
Since 2024, lithium prices have fluctuated greatly in the middle and downstream of the industry due to factors such as inventory management and price expectations. At the same time, the progress of the company's overseas projects was disrupted, and the volume of production capacity fell short of expectations; depreciation of the company's high-priced inventory affected performance. We lowered the company's performance. We expect the company's net profit to be -0.158, 0.83, 1.51 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and -0.08, 0.41, and 0.75 billion yuan for EPS.
Risk warning: lithium prices fell beyond expectations; the company's project progress fell short of expectations, etc.
