TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LIMITED(00780.HK):STRONG GROWTH OF CORE OTA BUSINESS
TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LIMITED(00780.HK):STRONG GROWTH OF CORE OTA BUSINESS
Maintain Buy. We are optimistic about the long-term structural growth of the online travel industry, and Tongcheng Travel is expected to remain resilient on the top-line thanks to its mass market positioning and continuous expansion of customer acquisition channels, and strategically improve the certainty of bottom-line. We believe the company has relative high certainty in domestic consumption and maintain a Buy rating.Tongcheng Travel reported 3Q24 revenue of Rmb5.0bn (+51% YoY) and adjusted net profit of Rmb910m (+47% YoY), higher than our expectations, thanks to higher than expected efficiency improvement. We raise 24E EPS forecast from Rmb1.12 to Rmb1.17, and maintain 25E forecast of Rmb1.32 and 26E forecast of Rmb1.52. We raise target price from HK$20 to HK$22.5, with 23% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
同程旅行報告2024年第三季度營業收入爲50億元人民幣（同比增長51%），調整後的淨利潤爲91000萬元人民幣（同比增長47%），高於我們的預期，這得益於預期以上的效率提升。我們將2024年每股收益預測從1.12元人民幣上調至1.17元人民幣，並維持2025年1.32元人民幣和2026年1.52元人民幣的預測。我們將目標價從20港元上調至22.5港元，具有23%的上漲潛力，維持買入評級。
Strong growth of core OTA business. In 3Q24, the company's core OTA revenue increased by 22% YoY, with accommodation reservation revenue up by 22% YoY and transportation ticketing revenue up by 21% YoY. Number of monthly paying users reached a record number of 46.4m. The operating profit margin of core OTA business improved 7ppts QoQ to 31%, benefiting from cost control and efficient marketing activities. International hotel room nights increased by 130% YoY and air ticketing volume increased by 110% YoY. We expect the impact of outbound travel business's marketing activities on core OTA margin to narrow and outbound travel business to breakeven in 2025.
核心在線旅遊業務強勁增長。2024年第三季度，公司核心在線旅遊營業收入同比增長22%，住宿預訂收入同比增長22%，運輸票務收入同比增長21%。每月付費用戶數達到4640萬的歷史新高。核心在線旅遊業務的營業利潤率環比提升7個百分點至31%，受益於成本控制和高效的營銷活動。國際酒店的客房夜數同比增長130%，機票成交量同比增長110%。我們預計出境旅遊業務的營銷活動對核心在線旅遊利潤率的影響將收窄，並且出境旅遊業務將在2025年實現盈虧平衡。
Performance Outlook. We expect 4Q24 revenue to grow 25% YoY, with accommodation reservation revenue up 20% YoY, transportation ticketing revenue up 15% YoY, and other revenue up 15% YoY.
業績展望。我們預計2024年第四季度營業收入將同比增長25%，其中住宿預訂收入同比增長20%，運輸票務收入同比增長15%，其他收入同比增長15%。
Maintain Buy. We are optimistic about the long-term structural growth of the online travel industry, and Tongcheng Travel is expected to remain resilient on the top-line thanks to its mass market positioning and continuous expansion of customer acquisition channels, and strategically improve the certainty of bottom-line. We believe the company has relative high certainty in domestic consumption and maintain a Buy rating.
維持買入。我們對在線旅遊行業的長期結構性增長持樂觀態度，預計同程旅行在前端將繼續保持韌性，得益於其大衆市場定位和客戶獲取渠道的持續擴展，並在戰略上提高底線的確定性。我們相信公司在國內消費方面具有相對高的確定性，並維持買入評級。
Risks. Revenue growth may fall short of expectations. Intensified competition could lead to margin erosion.
風險。營業收入增長可能低於預期。加劇的競爭可能導致利潤率下降。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
