TRIP.COM GROUP LIMITED(09961.HK):3Q24 BEAT
TRIP.COM GROUP LIMITED(09961.HK):3Q24 BEAT
Trip.com brand consistently sustains high growth. In 3Q24, Trip.com's revenue increased by 60% YoY, contributing 9% of the company's total revenue, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 50% in 4Q24, contributing over 11% of the total revenue.Trip.com Group reported 3Q24 revenue of Rmb15.9bn (+16% YoY), non-gaap operating profit of Rmb5.5bn, and non-gaap operating profit margin of 34%, higher than our expectations, thanks to better-than-expected marketing efficiencies. We raise non-gaap EPS forecasts from Rmb21.8 to Rmb25.9 in 24E, from Rmb24.2 to Rmb28 in 25E and from Rmb26.7 to Rmb29.7 in 26E. We raise target price from HK$517 to HK$611, with 21% upside, we maintain Buy rating.
攜程網集團報告2024年第三季度營業收入爲人民幣159億元，同比增長16%；非公認會計准則營業利潤爲人民幣55億元，非公認會計准則營業利潤率爲34%，高於我們的預期，得益於超出預期的市場營銷效率。我們將2024年的非公認會計准則每股收益預測從人民幣21.8上調至人民幣25.9，將2025年的非公認會計准則每股收益預測從人民幣24.2上調至人民幣28，將2026年的非公認會計准則每股收益預測從人民幣26.7上調至人民幣29.7。我們將目標價從港幣517元上調至港幣611元，上漲幅度爲21%，我們維持買入評級。
3Q24 performance. By business segment, the company's accommodation reservation revenue increased by 22% YoY, transportation ticketing revenue increased by 5%, packaged-tour revenue increased by 17%, corporate travel revenue increased by 11%, and other revenue increased by 41%.
2024年第三季度業績。從業務分部來看，公司住宿預訂營業收入同比增長22%，運輸票務營業收入增長5%，打包旅遊營業收入增長17%，企業差旅營業收入增長11%，其他營業收入增長41%。
Outbound travel continues to recover. In 3Q24, the company's outbound travel revenue increased by 40% YoY, fully recovered to 2019 level, and is expected to increase by over 30% YoY in 4Q24. The company continues to recover 40ppts faster than the international flight capacity. 4Q24 outbound accommodation reservation revenue is expected to increase 20% over 2019 level, outbound air ticketing revenue is expected to increase over 25% over 2019 level, and outbound packaged-tour revenue is expected to recover from 50% in 3Q24 to nearly 60%.
出境旅遊持續回暖。在2024年第三季度，公司出境旅遊營業收入同比增長40%，完全恢復至2019年水平，預計在2024年第四季度同比增長超過30%。公司繼續以比國際航班運力快40個百分點的速度復甦。2024年第四季度出境住宿預訂營業收入預計將比2019年水平增長20%，出境機票營業收入預計將比2019年水平增長超過25%，出境打包旅遊營業收入預計將從2024年第三季度的50%恢復至接近60%。
Trip.com brand consistently sustains high growth. In 3Q24, Trip.com's revenue increased by 60% YoY, contributing 9% of the company's total revenue, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 50% in 4Q24, contributing over 11% of the total revenue.
攜程網品牌始終保持高速增長。在2024年第三季度，攜程網的營業收入同比增長60%，貢獻了公司總營業收入的9%，預計在2024年第四季度仍將保持超過50%的增長率，貢獻超過11%的總營業收入。
Maintain Buy. We continue to be optimistic about Trip.com Group's leading position in China's online travel industry and its potential to gain market share in the international market. We raise target price from HK$517 to HK$611, with 21% upside, we maintain Buy rating.
維持買入。我們繼續看好攜程網集團在中國在線旅遊行業的領先地位及其在國際市場上爭取市場份額的潛力。我們將目標價從港幣517元上調至港幣611元，上漲幅度爲21%，我們維持買入評級。
Risks: Lower-than-expected revenue growth; decline in profit margin due to increased competitions.
風險：營業收入增長低於預期；由於競爭加劇而導致利潤率下降。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
