Here's Why Ermenegildo Zegna (NYSE:ZGN) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Here's Why Ermenegildo Zegna (NYSE:ZGN) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (NYSE:ZGN) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他提到與其擔心股票價格的波動,不如關注'永久性損失的可能性,這才是我擔心的風險……而我認識的每個實用投資者也都擔心這個。' 當我們思考一家公司有多危險時,我們總是喜歡關注其債務的使用,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。正如許多其他公司一樣,埃爾梅內基爾多·澤尼亞N.V.(紐交所:ZGN)也使用了債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
通常情況下,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資本還是通過自身現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所獲。然而,更普遍(但仍然痛苦)的情況是,公司必須以低價籌集新的股本資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。當然,在企業中,債務可以是一個重要工具,特別是資本密集型企業。考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的事情是查看其現金和債務的總額。
What Is Ermenegildo Zegna's Net Debt?
埃爾梅內基爾多·澤尼亞的淨債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ermenegildo Zegna had €388.8m in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has €320.7m in cash leading to net debt of about €68.1m.
下面的圖表,您可以點擊以獲取更多詳細信息,顯示埃爾梅內基爾多·澤尼亞在2024年6月有38880萬歐元的債務;與前一年大致相同。另一方面,它有32070萬歐元的現金,導致淨債務約爲6810萬歐元。
How Healthy Is Ermenegildo Zegna's Balance Sheet?
埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞的資產負債表有多健康?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Ermenegildo Zegna had liabilities of €871.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €995.6m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of €320.7m and €253.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling €1.29b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最近報告的資產負債表,埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞的負債爲87150萬歐元,12個月內到期,99560萬歐元的負債在12個月後到期。另一方面,它有32070萬歐元的現金和25300萬歐元的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額超過其現金和短期應收賬款的總和爲12.9億歐元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €1.78b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ermenegildo Zegna's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
相對於其17.8億歐元的市值,這一赤字是相當可觀的,因此確實建議股東關注埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞的債務使用情況。如果其貸款方要求其鞏固資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的攤薄。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
While Ermenegildo Zegna's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.35 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 5.2 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Unfortunately, Ermenegildo Zegna's EBIT flopped 11% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ermenegildo Zegna can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
雖然埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞低達0.35的債務與EBITDA比率表明僅適度使用債務,但EBIT去年的利息費用僅覆蓋了5.2倍確實讓我們感到擔憂。因此,我們建議密切關注融資成本對業務的影響。不幸的是,埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞的EBIT在過去四個季度下降了11%。如果這種下降沒有得到遏制,那麼管理其債務將比以高價出售西蘭花味冰淇淋更困難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個好的起點。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞是否能夠隨時間鞏固資產負債表。因此,如果你想知道專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Ermenegildo Zegna generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 84% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本不足以解決問題。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是查看EBIT中與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞生成的自由現金流佔其EBIT的比例非常強勁,達到84%,超過我們的預期。這使其在需要償還債務時處於良好位置。
Our View
我們的觀點
Ermenegildo Zegna's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. Having said that, its EBIT growth rate somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Ermenegildo Zegna's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Ermenegildo Zegna, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞將EBIT轉換爲自由現金流的表現是此分析中的一個積極因素,其淨債務與EBITDA比率也非常好。儘管如此,其EBIT增長率讓我們對資產負債表潛在的未來風險有所敏感。看着這些數據,我們對埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞的債務水平感到有些謹慎。雖然我們理解債務可以提升股本的回報,但我們建議股東們密切關注其債務水平,以免增加。隨着時間的推移,股票價格往往跟隨每股收益的變化,因此如果您對埃爾梅內吉爾多·澤尼亞感興趣,您可能想點擊這裏查看其每股收益歷史的交互式圖表。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
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