XIAOMI(1810.HK):3Q24 BEAT ON STRONGER EV/CORE BUSINESS MARGIN;SOLID EXECUTION OF "HUMAN×CAR×HOME" STRATEGY
XIAOMI(1810.HK):3Q24 BEAT ON STRONGER EV/CORE BUSINESS MARGIN;SOLID EXECUTION OF "HUMAN×CAR×HOME" STRATEGY
Accelerated growth in core business and EV; Reiterate BUY. We believe Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem is poised to bear fruit from global market share gains and AI upgrade cycle in FY25/26E, and we expect further upside in EV business backed by new model launch and production capacity improvements. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E.Positive on core business outlook and EV upside.Xiaomi delivered another beat with 3Q24 revenue/adj. net profit growth of 31%/ 4% YoY. Adj. net profit is 3%/6% ahead of our/consensus estimates, thanks to better EV/core business margins and investment related gains. Xiaomi's EV GPM came in strong at 17.1% (vs. 2Q24 15.4%), above market expectations. Mgmt. guided EV GPM to improve QoQ in 4Q24E and lifted annual delivery target to 130k units (vs. previous 100k). Looking ahead, we remain positive on Xiaomi's solid execution of "Human x Car x Home" strategy, backed by smartphone global share gains, AIoT growth in expanding SKUs (tablets/wearables/home appliance) and improving mix, and EV shipment momentum into FY25-26E. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include SUV model launch, smartphone/AIoT share gains, overseas store expansion and EV order/delivery/profitability updates.
小米再次交出亮眼的业绩，2024年第3季度营业收入/调整净利润同比增长31%/4%。调整后的净利润较我们/市场预期高出3%/6%，得益于更好的电动汽车/核心业务利润率和投资收益。小米的电动汽车毛利率达到17.1%（较2024年第2季度的15.4%高），超出市场预期。管理层指导电动汽车毛利率在2024年第4季度环比改善，并将年度交付目标提高到13万辆（较之前的10万辆）。展望未来，我们对小米坚实执行“人车居”战略保持乐观，得益于智能手机全球份额增长、人工智能物联网产品SKU扩展（平板电脑/可穿戴设备/家电）和不断改善的产品组合，以及电动汽车出货势头进入2025-2026财年。重申买入评级，基于新的SOTP法设定目标价为32.7港币，暗示2025财年市盈率为24.3倍。即将到来的催化剂包括SUV车型发布、智能手机/人工智能物联网产品份额增长、海外门店扩张以及电动汽车订单/交付/盈利能力更新。
3Q24 beat on stronger smartphone and AIoT/Internet/EV margins. Xiaomi's 3Q24 global smartphone shipment grew 3.2% YoY and ASP improved 10.6% YoY due to market share gains and higher sales of premium models. By segment, smartphone/AIoT/internet revenue grew 14%/26%/9% YoY, boosted by stronger smartphone/large home appliance/wearables and global user base expansion. Smartphone GPM came in at 11.7% (vs. 12.1%/14.8% in 2Q/1Q24), largely in-line due to higher BOM costs, while AIoT GPM elevated to 20.8% (+2.9ppts YoY/+1.1ppts QoQ) thanks to higher mix of higher-margin home appliance and wearable products. 3Q24 EV GPM was impressive at 17.1% (vs. 2Q24 15.4%), with further upside in 4Q24E. 3Q24 beat on stronger SP sales and AIoT/Internet/EV margins.
2024年第3季度在智能手机和人工智能物联网/互联网/电动汽车毛利率增强的情况下表现优异。小米的全球智能手机出货量增长3.2%，平均售价同比提高了10.6%，这得益于市场份额增长和高端机型销量增加。按业务板块划分，智能手机/人工智能物联网/互联网营收分别同比增长14%/26%/9%，得益于智能手机/大型家电/可穿戴设备和全球用户基数的扩大。智能手机毛利率为11.7%（较2024年第2季度/第1季度的12.1%/14.8%略有下降），这在很大程度上是由于较高的制造成本，而人工智能物联网产品毛利率提高到了20.8%（+2.9个百分点同比/+1.1个百分点环比），这得益于更高比例的高毛利率家电和可穿戴设备产品。2024年第3季度电动汽车毛利率令人印象深刻，达到17.1%（较2024年第2季度的15.4%高），2024年第4季度有进一步上行的空间。2024年第3季度表现强劲，销售增长强劲，人工智能物联网/互联网业务毛利率提升。
FY25E outlook: EV & core business momentum to continue, new retail strategy to accelerate. Xiaomi EV reached 20k monthly delivery in October, and mgmt. lifted annual EV delivery target to 130k units (vs. previous 100k) backed by higher efficiency and faster production output. Xiaomi's new retail strategy execution was beyond mgmt. expectations, and new store opening target was lifted to 15k/20k stores by end of FY24/25E (vs. previous 13k/20k by end of FY24/26E). Looking ahead, mgmt. is confident that new retail channel expansion will further boost AIoT home appliance and EV sales, especially in lower-tier cities. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's adj. net profit to grow 28%/25% YoY in FY24/25E.
2025财年展望：电动汽车和核心业务势头持续，新零售策略加速。小米电动汽车于10月份的月度交付量达到2万辆，并管理层提高了年度电动汽车交付目标至13万辆（较之前的10万辆），得益于更高的效率和更快的生产产量。小米的新零售策略执行超出管理层预期，新门店开张目标提升至20,000/15,000家，预计在2024/2025财年末达到（较之前的2026财年末的13,000家/20,000家）。展望未来，管理层相信新零售渠道扩张将进一步推动人工智能物联网家电和电动汽车销售，特别是在下沉市场。总体而言，我们预计小米的调整后净利润将在2024/2025财年同比增长28%/25%。
Accelerated growth in core business and EV; Reiterate BUY. We believe Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem is poised to bear fruit from global market share gains and AI upgrade cycle in FY25/26E, and we expect further upside in EV business backed by new model launch and production capacity improvements. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E.Positive on core business outlook and EV upside.
核心业务和电动车领域增长加速；重申买入。我们认为小米的"人x车x家"生态系统有望从全球市场份额增长和人工智能升级周期中收获果实，在FY25/26E预计电动车业务进一步上升，得益于新车型推出和产能提升。重申买入，基于新SOTP目标价港元32.7，暗示FY25E市盈率24.3倍。对核心业务前景和电动车潜力持正面看法。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
