The minutes of the November meeting of the Reserve Bank of australia indicate that members believe the current policy level is appropriate for reducing the still excessively high core inflation, and discussed scenarios where interest rates may need to be lowered, raised, or maintained at high levels for a longer period. However, they emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding the risk of rising inflation, believing that the bank's tolerance is extremely low in situations where prices remain above target for a long time.
The minutes mentioned that australia faces three major overseas risks, including the possibility of significant changes in usa economic policy, the scale or composition of china's stimulus policies possibly differing from expectations, and the risk that the growth of australian government debt becomes unsustainable. However, members unanimously agreed that it is too early to consider the impact of these events, as relevant details are still unclear and difficult to predict.
The bank believes that if interest rate cuts are needed, australian consumer spending must continuously and significantly fall below the bank's forecasts, leading to a significant decrease in inflation; or alternatively, labor market conditions must significantly ease, thereby reducing inflation.