ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK):3Q24 FREIGHT VOLUME AND REVENUE HIT NEW QUARTERLY HIGHS; PRICING MECHANISM SOLID
ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK):3Q24 FREIGHT VOLUME AND REVENUE HIT NEW QUARTERLY HIGHS; PRICING MECHANISM SOLID
3Q24 freight volume and revenue hit new quarterly highs. In 3Q24, the company completed shipment of a total freight volume of 3.74mnt (up 18% YoY and up 5% QoQ); it recorded a total number of 45.91mn shipments (up 38% YoY and up 13% QoQ); revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn, hitting quarterly highs. 3Q is a traditional slack season for freight transport. The Public Logistics Park Throughput Index fell 7% YoY in July, 6% YoY in August, and 5% YoY in September. The company delivered solid performance, as it rolled out innovative products and increased the number of outlets. As of end-3Q24, the number of its outlets rose about 4,000 YoY to about 32,000. As a result, shipment volume increased steadily and the company improved its end-market services and reduced related costs.3Q24 results beat our expectations
24 年第 3 季度的业绩超出了我们的预期
ANE announced its 3Q24 results: Revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn; gross profit grew 67% YoY to Rmb476mn; gross margin rose 4.3ppt YoY to 15.6%; adjusted net profit grew 28% YoY to Rmb218mn. Factoring in a high base for other income in 3Q23 due to the additional VAT deduction policy (about Rmb60mn), the firm estimates that adjusted pre-tax profit rose 76% YoY in 3Q24. 3Q24 earnings beat our previous forecast (Rmb210mn), mainly due to better-than-expected ASP and continued cost reduction driven by network structure optimization.
ANE公布了其24年第三季度业绩：收入同比增长21％，环比增长5％，至人民币30.4亿元；毛利同比增长67％，至人民币4.76亿元；毛利率同比增长4.3个百分点至15.6％；调整后的净利润同比增长28％，至人民币2.18亿元。考虑到增值税额外扣除政策（约合人民币6000万元），23年第三季度其他收入基数较高，该公司估计，调整后的税前利润在24年第三季度同比增长76％。24年第三季度的收益超过了我们先前的预期（2.1亿元人民币），这主要是由于ASP好于预期以及网络结构优化推动的成本持续降低。
Trends to watch
值得关注的趋势
3Q24 freight volume and revenue hit new quarterly highs. In 3Q24, the company completed shipment of a total freight volume of 3.74mnt (up 18% YoY and up 5% QoQ); it recorded a total number of 45.91mn shipments (up 38% YoY and up 13% QoQ); revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn, hitting quarterly highs. 3Q is a traditional slack season for freight transport. The Public Logistics Park Throughput Index fell 7% YoY in July, 6% YoY in August, and 5% YoY in September. The company delivered solid performance, as it rolled out innovative products and increased the number of outlets. As of end-3Q24, the number of its outlets rose about 4,000 YoY to about 32,000. As a result, shipment volume increased steadily and the company improved its end-market services and reduced related costs.
24 年第 3 季度的货运量和收入创下季度新高。在24年第三季度，该公司总货运量为374万吨（同比增长18％，环比增长5％）；总出货量为4591万辆（同比增长38％，环比增长13％）；收入同比增长21％，环比增长5％，至30.4亿元人民币，创季度新高。第三季度是货运的传统疲劳季节。公共物流园吞吐量指数在7月份同比下降7％，8月份同比下降6％，9月份同比下降5％。该公司推出了创新产品并增加了门店数量，取得了稳健的业绩。截至24年第三季度末，其门店数量同比增长约4,000家，至约3.2万家。结果，出货量稳步增长，该公司改善了终端市场服务并降低了相关成本。
A solid pricing mechanism. Revenue per tonne rose 2% YoY in 3Q24, beating our expectation. The ASP of the firm's less-than-truckload (LTL) business rose 2% YoY to Rmb815/t in 3Q24, as the firm optimized its freight weight structure and improved service quality while implementing a solid pricing mechanism (e.g., no price hikes in peak season and no price cuts in slack season). Stable pricing not only helps mitigate seasonal fluctuations in earnings, but also helps franchisees refine operations, thereby improving franchisee retention rate.
稳健的定价机制。24年第三季度每吨收入同比增长2％，超出了我们的预期。该公司零担运输（LTL）业务的ASP在24年第三季度同比增长2％，至人民币815元/吨，这要归因于该公司优化了货运重量结构和提高了服务质量，同时实施了稳健的定价机制（例如，旺季不涨价，淡季不降价）。稳定的定价不仅有助于减轻收益的季节性波动，还可以帮助加盟商完善运营，从而提高加盟商留存率。
Cost control effective; provisions for bonuses and other expenses increased. In 3Q24, cost dropped by 3% YoY to Rmb687/t, thanks to effective cost control. Costs of trunk line transportation and distribution fell 6% and 17% YoY, and costs of value-added services and freight delivery rose 75% and 6% YoY. G&A expenses rose 41% YoY to Rmb222mn due to increased provisions for employee bonuses, share-based payment expenses and marketing expenses.
成本控制有效；增加了奖金和其他开支的准备金。在24年第三季度，由于有效的成本控制，成本同比下降3％至人民币687元/吨。干线运输和配送成本同比下降6％和17％，增值服务和货运成本同比增长75％和6％。由于增加了员工奖金、基于股份的支付费用和营销费用拨备，并购支出同比增长41％，至人民币2.22亿元。
We are upbeat on the firm's healthy earnings growth in the medium and long term given its network ecosystem and product mix optimization. In 3Q24, the firm's shipment volume of mini freight (0-70kg) rose 37% YoY. As a result, the average freight weight fell 15% YoY to 81kg. Under the new cargo weight structure, we expect the firm to further optimize its cost structure and achieve healthy earnings growth by promoting the construction of digital and automated transportation systems.
鉴于其网络生态系统和产品组合优化，我们对该公司的中长期盈利健康增长持乐观态度。在24年第三季度，该公司的微型货物（0-70千克）的出货量同比增长了37％。结果，平均货运重量同比下降15％，至81千克。在新的货物重量结构下，我们预计该公司将通过促进数字和自动化运输系统的建设，进一步优化其成本结构并实现健康的收益增长。
Financials and valuation
财务和估值
We keep our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 11.2x 2024e and 8.6x 2025e recurrent P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. We roll over to valuation for 2025, and lift our target price 10% to Rmb11.0. Our TP implies 11x 2025e recurrent P/E, offering 39% upside.
我们将2024年和2025年的收益预测保持不变。该股的交易价格为2024年的11.2倍和2025年的8.6倍经常市盈率。我们维持跑赢大盘的评级。我们将延续至2025年的估值，并将目标价格上调10％至11.0元人民币。我们的目标股指的是2025年循环市盈率的11倍，上涨幅度为39％。
Risks
风险
Disappointing economic growth; intensifying price competition; disappointing cost control.
令人失望的经济增长；加剧的价格竞争；令人失望的成本控制。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
