Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DNA) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$89m, beating expectations by 98%. Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings reported a statutory loss of US$1.08 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings is for revenues of US$207.7m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 4.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$69.56 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$209.3m and losses of US$69.57 per share in 2025.
As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$8.40, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
