According to reports from Caixin, today (the 15th) 12.2 billion RMB in reverse repos will expire in the mainland, in addition to 1,450 billion RMB in MLF and 80 billion RMB in government cash deposits, while the People's Bank of China conducts a 981 billion RMB 7-day reverse repo operation; industry insiders believe there may be one RRR cut within the year under the PBOC's new framework, possibly landing as soon as November.

Industry insiders believe that the underlying logic of current policies in the mainland has changed, especially as the central bank's leverage space has clearly opened up. Specifically regarding the mmf, the overall direction will continue to be accommodative, with another RRR cut likely to occur within the year. Combined with the latest released macro data, market expectations for an RRR cut have increased, with some viewpoints suggesting there could be one cut in November and possibly a rate cut in the first half of next year.

Sun Binbin, chief analyst of fixed income at Tianfeng, believes that under the PBOC's new framework, there may be one RRR cut in November and possibly one rate cut in the first half of next year. Observing the policy signals, external uncertainties and domestic macro pressures may have an impact, but they will not change the direction of monetary easing, including the possibility of rate cuts.