Despite Arhaus, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ARHS) recent earnings report having lackluster headline numbers, the market responded positively. We think that shareholders might be missing some concerning factors that our analysis found.
A Closer Look At Arhaus' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to September 2024, Arhaus recorded an accrual ratio of 0.63. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$13m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of US$78.5m. Arhaus' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Arhaus' Profit Performance
As we discussed above, we think Arhaus' earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Arhaus' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Arhaus at this point in time. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Arhaus (1 shouldn't be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Arhaus' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
