As you might know, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZVRA) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 24% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.69. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Zevra Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$100.5m in 2025. This reflects a huge 310% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 79% to US$0.35. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$98.0m and US$0.34 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
The average price target rose 14% to US$20.14, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Zevra Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Zevra Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 209% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Zevra Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Zevra Therapeutics. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Zevra Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Zevra Therapeutics .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.