Groupon, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
Groupon, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
There's been a major selloff in Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 24% to US$8.26. Revenues of US$114m reported a marginal miss, falling short of forecasts by 2.9%, but earnings were better than expected - statutory profits came in at US$0.33 per share, a nice change from the loss the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Groupon after the latest results.
Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN)股票自發布季度報告以來已出現重大的拋售行爲,股價下跌了24%至8.26美元。營業額達到了11400萬美元,略有不及預期,較預測低2.9%,但盈利超出預期-每股盈利達到了0.33美元,與分析師預期的虧損形成了良好的對比。分析師通常會在每份盈利報告後更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估算中判斷,他們對該公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何需要注意的新問題。讀者將會高興地知道,我們已經整合了最新的法定預測數據,以查看分析師在最新業績後是否改變了對Groupon的看法。
Taking into account the latest results, Groupon's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$503.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 54% to US$0.75. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$537.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.64 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the substantial gain in to the earnings per share numbers.
考慮到最新業績,Groupon的三名分析師目前預計2025年的營業額爲50340萬美元,與過去12個月大致相當。法定每股收益預計將飆升54%,達到0.75美元。在此報告之前,分析師一直在預測2025年的營業額爲53760萬美元,每股盈利(EPS)爲0.64美元。儘管營收預測有所下調,但分析師似乎對公司的成本基礎變得更加樂觀,鑑於每股盈利數據大幅增長。
There's been no real change to the average price target of US$18.00, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Groupon analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
平均目標價格18.00美元並無實質變化,預計更低的營收和更高的盈利預測不會在較長時間範圍內對公司估值構成重大影響。然而,從這些數據中我們可以得出的結論並不僅如此,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師目標價格時還喜歡考慮估算的幅度。最樂觀的Groupon分析師將每股目標價設定爲22.00美元,而最悲觀的目標價爲11.00美元。注意分析師目標價格之間的較大差值嗎?這對我們意味着潛在業務可能出現範圍廣泛的情形。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Groupon's top line has shrunk approximately 35% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Groupon is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
要獲取有關這些預測的更多背景信息,一種方法是查看它們與過去表現以及同行公司表現的比較。值得注意的是,幾年來營業收入下降的趨勢似乎已經結束,預測顯示到2025年底將保持穩定。從歷史數據來看,Groupon的營業收入每年大約下降35%。將此與分析師對更廣泛行業的預估進行比較,顯示(總體上)預計行業營收每年增長10%。因此,儘管營收有所提升,但預計Groupon的增長速度仍低於行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Groupon's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
對我們來說最重要的一點是一致的每股收益升級,表明了市場對Groupon明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。在消極方面,他們還下調了營收預估,並預測表明他們的表現將不如更廣泛的行業。話雖如此,盈利對企業長期價值更爲重要。一致的目標價維持在18.00美元,最新的預估不足以對其價格目標產生影響。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Groupon going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
話雖如此,公司盈利的長期軌跡比明年更爲重要。我們對Groupon到2026年的預測已經出來了,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Groupon (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
不要忘記仍然可能存在風險。例如,我們已經確認了Groupon存在4個警示信號(其中1個比較令人不愉快),你應該注意。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。