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Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%

Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%

儘管格雷厄姆控股(紐交所:GHC)的收益呈下降趨勢,但股價飆升了10%,帶來了三年來63%的增長。
Simply Wall St ·  11/13 19:41

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) share price is up 58% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 15% (not including dividends).

通過購買指數基金,您可以輕鬆地大致與市場回報相匹配。但如果您選擇合適的個別股票,您可能會賺得更多。例如,格雷厄姆控股公司(紐交所:GHC)股價在過去三年中上漲了58%,明顯超過市場回報約15%(不包括股息)。

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

在穩定的七天表現之後,讓我們看看公司的基本面對長期股東回報的影響。

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

不可否認的是,市場有時是高效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。一個不完美但簡單的方法來考慮公司市場感知如何改變是比較每股收益(EPS)變化和股價變動。

Over the last three years, Graham Holdings failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 20% (annualized).

在過去三年中,格雷厄姆控股公司未能增長每股收益,每股收益下降了20%(年化)。

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

這意味着市場不太可能根據收益增長來評估公司。由於EPS的變化似乎不與股價的變化相關,因此值得關注其他指標。

Languishing at just 0.7%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 14% per year is viewed as evidence that Graham Holdings is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

股息僅爲0.7%,我們懷疑這對支撐股價起到了什麼作用。也許每年14%的營業收入增長被視爲格雷厄姆控股正在增長的證據。如果公司正在爲長遠利益而管理,今天的股東可能是正確的。

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

以下圖片顯示了收益和營收隨時間的變化(如果你點擊圖片,可以看到更詳細的信息)。

big
NYSE:GHC Earnings and Revenue Growth November 13th 2024
紐交所:格雷厄姆控股2024年11月13日收益和營收增長

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Graham Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

我們認爲內部人士在過去一年中進行了重大購買是積極的。話雖如此,大多數人認爲盈利和營收增長趨勢更有意義作爲業務的指南。如果您考慮購買或出售格雷厄姆控股股票,應查閱此免費報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。

What About Dividends?

關於分紅派息的問題

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Graham Holdings, it has a TSR of 63% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮總股東回報率(TSR)和股價回報之間的差異。而股價回報僅反映了股價變化,TSR包括了股息的價值(假設它們已被再投資)以及任何資本籌集或分拆帶來的好處。可以說TSR爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。就格雷厄姆控股而言,過去3年的TSR爲63%。這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。公司支付的股息因此提升了總股東回報。

A Different Perspective

另一種看法

We're pleased to report that Graham Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 50% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Graham Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

我們很高興地報告,格雷厄姆控股的股東在一年內獲得了50%的總股東回報。這也包括了分紅派息。這比過去半個世紀的年化回報率9%要好,暗示公司最近的表現更好。在最好的情況下,這可能暗示着一些真正的業務勢頭,表明現在可能是深入了解更多的好時機。我覺得長期觀察股價作爲業務績效的替代是非常有趣的。但要真正獲得見解,我們也需要考慮其他信息。比如,要考慮投資風險的影響。我們已經確認了格雷厄姆控股存在2個警示信號(至少有1個令人擔憂),了解它們應該是投資過程的一部分。

Graham Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

格雷厄姆控股並不是唯一一家內部人正在買入的股票。對於那些喜歡發現不太爲人知的公司的人們,這份包含最新內部人購買動態的成長公司免費名單可能正合適。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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