The Intevac, Inc. (NASDAQ:IVAC) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 29%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Intevac's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Tech industry in the United States, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
How Intevac Has Been Performing
Recent times have been advantageous for Intevac as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S ratio from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Intevac will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Intevac?
Intevac's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 29% gain to the company's top line. The latest three year period has also seen an incredible overall rise in revenue, aided by its incredible short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a tremendous job of growing revenue over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 2.4% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 6.6% growth forecast for the broader industry.
In light of this, it's curious that Intevac's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
What Does Intevac's P/S Mean For Investors?
Intevac's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
When you consider that Intevac's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Intevac that you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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