逆变器业务，预计Q3 并网逆变器环比小幅下降，同比大幅下降是受海外库存等因素影响，海外、国内毛利率环比Q2 有明显改善，结构上海外收入占比预计超过一半，特别是亚非拉市场占比有所提升。预计储能逆变器Q3 单台均价较高，我们推测工商业占比进一步提升，毛利率保持在良好水平。Description of the event
Goodway released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 4.943 billion yuan, down 12.51% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.009 billion yuan, down 99.03% year on year; among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.796 billion yuan, down 2.2% year on year, down 11.17% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.032 billion yuan, down 78.64% year on year, up 550.84% month on month. The performance was in line with expectations.
Incident comments
In the inverter business, grid-connected inverters are expected to decline slightly month-on-month in Q3. The sharp year-on-year decline is affected by factors such as overseas inventories. Overseas and domestic gross margins have improved markedly from month to month in Q2. Structural Shanghai's share of revenue is expected to account for more than half. In particular, the share of the Asia, Africa, and Latin America market share has increased. The average price of a single energy storage inverter is expected to be high in Q3. We speculate that the share of industry and commerce will increase further, and the gross margin will remain at a good level.
In addition, Q3 revenue from energy storage batteries is expected to decline month-on-month, or is related to factors such as delivery pace and market structure, and gross margin is relatively stable. Q3 revenue from the distributed EPC business is expected to increase slightly month-on-month, and gross margin remains stable. The absolute value of expenses during the Q3 period was stable month-on-month. The cost rate for the period was 19.6%, an increase of 1.9 pcts month-on-month.
The company's short-term demand performance is lackluster. The main reason is that the improvement in terminal demand in the European market is not obvious, and the non-European and American overseas markets have a low base. However, the long-term growth trend in demand for household and household storage inverters is still clear. European demand is expected to warm up markedly under the stimulus of the completion of storage and interest rate cuts in 2025. At the same time, the company is also expected to achieve more significant breakthroughs in overseas markets other than Europe and the US, and overall quantitative profit flexibility is still worth looking forward to.
The company announced the 2024 draft restricted stock incentive plan to grant 1.76 million restricted shares, accounting for 0.7% of the total share capital, involving 187 people. The current phased negative factors at the industry level do not affect the company's management's goal setting for medium- to long-term development, and the company's confidence in medium- to long-term development remains unchanged. Therefore, we believe that in addition to helping to strengthen the core team, this equity incentive also highlights development determination and reflects the company's full recognition of its capabilities and long-term value.
We expect the company to achieve a profit of 0.64 billion in 2025, equivalent to 20 times PE. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Deterioration of the competitive landscape;
2. PV installation falls short of expectations.
