Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 17% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Five-year Shareholder Returns
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 17% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Five-year Shareholder Returns
When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. For example, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:AGM) share price has soared 157% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. On top of that, the share price is up 19% in about a quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 12% in the last three months.
當您購買公司股票時,有可能該公司會失敗,您可能會虧錢,但買入高質量公司的股票並以合適價格購入,您可以獲得超過100%的利潤。舉例來說,美國聯邦農業抵押公司(紐交所: AGM)的股價在過去的半個十年裏飆升了157%,大多數人會爲此感到高興。此外,股價在約一個季度內上漲了19%。但這可能與股市強勁相關,過去三個月股市上漲了12%。
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Federal Agricultural Mortgage investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
過去一週對美國聯邦農業抵押公司的投資者來說是獲利的,讓我們看看基本面是否推動了該公司的五年表現。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
雖然一些人仍然相信有效市場假說,但已經證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。一個不完美但簡單的方法來考慮公司市場看法的變化是比較每股收益(EPS)的變化和股價的波動。
During five years of share price growth, Federal Agricultural Mortgage achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 15% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 21% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
在五年股價增長期間,美國聯邦農業抵押公司實現了每股收益(EPS)的複合增長率爲每年15%。與同期21%的股價增長相比,這種EPS增長速度較慢,這表明市場參與者如今更看好該公司。考慮到增長記錄,這並不奇怪。
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
該公司的每股收益(隨時間的推移)如下圖所示(單擊可查看確切數字)。
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Federal Agricultural Mortgage's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
值得一看,查看我們關於農業聯邦抵押貸款的收益,營業收入和現金流的免費報告。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Federal Agricultural Mortgage's TSR for the last 5 years was 207%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報率(TSR)。 TSR包括任何拆股或折價增發的價值,以及基於假設股息被再投資的分紅。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司,TSR通常比股價回報高得多。事實上,農業聯邦抵押貸款過去5年的TSR爲207%,超過了早期提到的股價回報。毫無疑問,分紅支付很大程度上解釋了這種分歧!
A Different Perspective
另一種看法
Federal Agricultural Mortgage shareholders have received returns of 39% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the general market return. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 25%. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Federal Agricultural Mortgage better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Federal Agricultural Mortgage has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
農業聯邦抵押貸款的股東在過去12個月內已獲得了39%的回報(甚至包括分紅),距離一般市場回報並不遙遠。多數人會對盈利感到滿意,而且這一年的回報比過去五年的平均回報25%要好,這有助於提高興趣。即使股價增長從這裏開始放緩,這家企業長期觀察的價值很高。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有趣。但要更好地了解農業聯邦抵押貸款,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,承擔風險-農業聯邦抵押貸款存在2個警示(其中1個可能嚴重),我們認爲你應該知道。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
當然,您可能通過在其他地方尋找會找到一筆極好的投資。因此,請查看我們預計會增長收入的公司免費名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
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