Leerink Partners has upgraded Bristol-Myers Squibb & Co (NYSE:BMY), stating that the company enters a catalyst-rich period in 2025-2027 beyond Cobenfy (a schizophrenia drug) and milvexian (anticoagulant).
The analyst expects upward pressure on Cobenfy (KarXT) and milvexian consensus expectations to drive stock outperformance from current levels.
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Leerink has upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, with a price target of $73, up from the previous $55, and adds that Bristol-Myers stock trades a substantial discount to the Diversified Biopharmaceutical median due to constrained EPS growth through 2029.
But the U.S. pharma giant's exposure to loss of exclusivity (LOE) pressures diminishes in 2030+ relative to peers.
On Monday, AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) stock fell after two trials investigating emraclidine as a once-daily, oral monotherapy treatment for adults with schizophrenia failed two Phase 2 trials.
With AbbVie's emraclidine Phase 2 trial failures, Leerink no longer anticipates that a competing product will launch in 2026, thus boosting long-term Cobenfy projections, including 2030E sales from $4.2 billion to $5.7 billion.
"Cobenfy appears likely to be a pipeline within a product, with limited competitive threats from stand-alone M4 candidates," Leerink analyst writes.
Leerink analyst estimates the potential for peak Cobenfy sales of over $10 billion if it succeeds in additional indications since Eli Lilly And Co's (NYSE:LLY) Zyprexa generated $5 billion in peak revenue in 2010 at much lower prices.
The analyst has also increased milvexian sales projections, with 2030E sales from $3.1 billion to $3.9 billion.
"We see the potential for milvexian peak sales to be above our 2025E Eliquis sales estimate of $14.4 billion if it delivers a superior benefit-risk profile in its atrial fibrillation Phase 3 in early 2027."
Price Action: BMY stock is down 0.74% at $59.37 at the last check on Tuesday.
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Courtesy of Bristol Myers Squibb
