低基数&产品结构调整下销量高增，单价有所下降。2024Q3 人民币口径，公司营收为60.4亿（同比+18.5%/美元+19.4%），归母净利润9.6 亿元（同比+16.1%/美元+17%），净利率同比-0.3pct/环比-0.3pct 至16.0%。量价拆分来看，Q3 销量约0.56 亿双（同比+24.7%）；单价约108.8 元/双（同比-5.0%），美元asp 同比-4.2%，次新客户增长较优下Q3 销量高增，美元单价同比下降预计主因汇率波动影响以及低单价品牌占比提升。Description of the event
The company announced 2024Q3 results. Q3 revenue, net profit to mother, and deducted non-net profit were 6.039, 0.965, and 0.958 billion yuan, respectively, +18.5%, +16.1%, and +17.4%, respectively. Revenue was off the lower limit of expectations (previously expected +18% to +23%), and performance was lower than expected (+18% to +23% previously expected). A total of 17.511, 2.843, and 2.803 billion yuan of revenue was achieved in the first three quarters, with year-on-year changes of 22.4%, 24.3%, and 24.5%.
Incident comments
Due to the low base and product restructuring, sales volume increased rapidly, and unit prices declined. In the 2024Q3 RMB caliber, the company's revenue was 6.04 billion yuan (+18.5% /USD +19.4%), net profit to mother was 0.96 billion yuan (+16.1% /USD +17%), and the net interest rate was -0.3 pct/month-on-month to 16.0%. Looking at volume and price splitting, Q3 sales volume was about 0.056 billion pairs (+24.7% YoY); unit price was about 108.8 yuan/pair (YoY -5.0%), USDASP -4.2% YoY. Sales in Q3 were high under better growth. The year-on-year decline in US dollar unit prices is expected mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations and an increase in the share of low unit price brands.
Gross margin remained stable year over year, and management expenses and income taxes slightly dragged down Q3 net interest rate performance. The gross margin of 2024Q3 was +0.5pct/month-on-month -1.1 pct to 27.0%. The month-on-month decline is expected to be mainly due to factory commissioning and a rise in the value of the Vietnamese dong. On the cost side, the company continued to have strong cost control capabilities under fine management. The cost rate remained stable at +0.2% year-on-year, and the sales/management/R&D/finance cost rates were -0.1 pct/+1.3 pct/-0.2 pct/ -0.9 pct, respectively. Among them, management expenses of +54% over the same period were significant mainly due to the increase in remuneration performance and long-term employee service payments. In terms of net interest rate, the Q3 company's net interest rate to mother is expected to be mainly dragged down by the increase in management expenses and income tax, with income tax expenses +37% expected to increase mainly due to the increase in net profit compared to the same period last year. However, the new plant continues to be put into operation, and the net interest rate of 16% still confirms its ability to manage refined profit margins.
Outlook: New and old customers can be expected to expand, and valuation premiums will gradually become apparent as stability is strengthened. In the short term, low base+improved downstream inventory will drive improved order acceptance. With the recovery of old customers and a continued high increase in new customers, the results are expected to be impressive in 2024. In the medium term, regular customer adjustments and steady superposition (secondary) of new customers are expected to drive a new round of growth. Active capacity expansion ensures improved performance flexibility when following the trend, and valuation premiums are evident under strong stability in profit margins. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 3.94, 4.53, and 5.25 billion yuan, +23%, +15%, and +16% year-on-year. The PE corresponding to the current price is 20, 18, and 15X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Overseas macroeconomic fluctuations;
2. Brand inventory removal falls short of expectations;
3. The progress of production capacity investment fell short of expectations.
