According to the Wisdom Financial APP, Warren Buffett, known as the 'Stock God', has been aggressively buying shares of the US energy giant Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) in recent years. The company will announce its third-quarter earnings after the US market closes on November 12th. Occidental Petroleum's stock price has been lackluster since the second half of this year, mainly due to weak oil demand and the continued expectation of oversupply of oil, which has led to a continuous decline in the international crude oil benchmark price - Brent crude oil futures price. However, two major oil and gas giants - Chevron and ExxonMobil - recently reported resilient earnings that exceeded expectations. The market expects Occidental Petroleum's performance to also exceed expectations and provide a catalyst for its stock price to rebound from oversold levels.

In terms of analyst expectations for Occidental Petroleum's performance, Seeking Alpha compiled expectations show that analysts generally expect Occidental Petroleum's adjusted earnings per share to be $0.75 in the third quarter, meaning a year-on-year decline of over 30%. This is mainly due to the significant decline in international crude oil prices in Q3, coupled with the serious negative impact of declining refining fuel profit margins shown in the financial reports of industry peers such as BP plc and Chevron. It is widely expected that Occidental Petroleum's Q3 total revenue will be around $7.12 billion, compared to about $7.4 billion in the same period last year and $6.88 billion in the previous quarter.

Additionally, market attention is on Occidental Petroleum's latest outlook on share buybacks and dividends. In the context of weak oil prices, continued aggressive share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns are important logic attractors for global funds flowing into traditional energy giants such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell.

It is worth noting that in the past four quarters, the company's earnings per share have consistently exceeded or met Wall Street analysts' expectations, with total revenue falling short of Wall Street expectations only once in the past four quarters. In the second quarter, Occidental Petroleum's overall performance exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from a significant increase in oil and natural gas production and rising liquefied natural gas export prices.

In terms of stock price trends, Occidental Petroleum's stock price has fallen by 13.5% so far this year, far below the substantial gains of the US stock market index - S&P 500, which has risen by as much as 25% year to date, and significantly trailing the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.US), a sector-specific ETF that tracks the entire US energy sector, which has delivered an investment return rate of as high as 14% over the same period.

Although Warren Buffett has stated that Berkshire Hathaway has no intention of fully acquiring Occidental Petroleum, his leadership at Berkshire Hathaway has continued to increase its stake in the company over the past few years, especially with several large-scale purchases in the first half of 2024. As of the first half of this year, Berkshire Hathaway's ownership stake in Occidental Petroleum is close to 29%. Despite global energy market demand challenges, Buffett remains bullish on the company's long-term shareholder return potential and expresses confidence in the traditional energy industry through continuous shareholding increases.

In the traditional energy sector, amid the ongoing weakness in Brent crude futures prices and crude oil futures prices, the focus for investors has shifted to energy companies engaging in 'quantity over price,' which is why the resilience of the two global oil and gas giants - Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) - has become a core focus. The latest quarterly results released by Exxon Mobil and Chevron beat analysts' expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in production from the Permian Basin helping offset the weak trend in crude oil prices. The market is eager to see if this logic of relying on increased production to boost profits can be fully confirmed in the Western Petroleum fundamentals.

Exxon Mobil has been the best performing oil giant in the US stock market this year, with its stock price rising by more than 20% year to date despite the fall in international crude oil prices. This largest North American energy exploration company has proven that compared to its peers, it has achieved greater growth in oil and natural gas production, lower costs, largely offsetting the negative impact of the sharp drop in crude oil prices.

As for the future trend of international crude oil prices, the outlook is not optimistic at the moment. This also means that solely relying on the market's main theme of crude oil prices is becoming increasingly insufficient to provide sustained upward momentum for Western petroleum stocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently stated that there will be a significant 'supply surplus' situation on a considerable scale in the global oil market in the new year, as of 2025. 'Currently, international oil supply continues to flow, and without major supply interruptions, the market will be facing a significant supply surplus in the new year,' wrote the IEA in its report.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has recently lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for the third consecutive month. These major institutions representing the most authoritative views of the oil market have abandoned their strong bullish forecasts for oil demand they firmly held earlier this year, finally realizing that global fuel consumption is rapidly slowing down. They are tending to acknowledge the recent dominant Wall Street pessimistic expectation of an oil 'supply surplus.' Goldman Sachs even predicts that Brent crude trading prices may fall to a temporary low of $61 per barrel.