Open Lending Corporation (NASDAQ:LPRO) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Open Lending delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (US$23m) and statutory earnings per share (US$0.01) falling badly short of analyst expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Open Lending's ten analysts is for revenues of US$123.5m in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 29% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 470% to US$0.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$134.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$7.25 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Open Lending, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Open Lending's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Open Lending to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Open Lending's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Open Lending analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Open Lending that we have uncovered.

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