DBS Latest Earnings Strongly Ahead Of Street
DBS Latest Earnings Strongly Ahead Of Street
NIMs fell -3bps YoY and QoQ partly from deploying liquidity to products with accounting asymmetry where the costs are captured in NII, but income is expressed in NoII. Overall, we expect NIM declines to be measured going forward given hedging and potential delays in Fed rate cuts under a new Trump Administration. Loan growth has disappointed given large repayments. DBS is seeing a good pipeline of new credit demand especially in renewables, TMT, property etc. Management is
DBS 9M24 earnings were strongly ahead of MIBG/Street supported by buoyant trading and fees. These trends are likely to continue in the near term. NII could see support from loan growth recovery and NIMs holding up better than expected. All this sets up nicely for more capital returns.
DBS 9M24盈利大幅超出MIBG/街頭預期，得益於活躍的交易和手續費。這些趨勢有望在短期內持續。淨利息收入可能受到貸款增長復甦和淨利息差表現優於預期的支撐。所有這些爲更多資本回報打下了良好基礎。
The SGD3bn share back is a positive step with Maybank Investment Bank expects increased progressive dividends going forward too. The house is raising its TP to SGD46.91 and maintain its BUY call on DBS
SGD30億的股票回購是一個積極的舉措，馬來亞銀行投資銀行預期未來股息將逐步增加。該機構將其目標價提高至SGD46.91，維持對DBS的買入建議。
Recovering NoII trajectory. NIM falling, but slow
NoII was better than expected. This was helped by 3Q24 market trading income on DBS' own books jumping +53% YoY in given FX, rate and equity derivative volatility. While unpredictable, given volatility is continuing in 4Q, the house expects an elevated contribution. Concurrently, 3Q24 Wealth Management rose +56% YoY. Clients are shifting from FDs (-4% QoQ) to
higher fee activities. Overall wealth AUM has increased +14% YoY which should feed more fees as RMs ramp up. While Management is guiding for high-single digit fee growth in 2025E, Maybank thinks this is a positive surprise. The house raises the 2024-26E NoII forecasts by 3-8%.NIM falling, but NII could hold up NII was better than expected with the commercial book holding up well.
不良資產收入產生的負面影響正在恢復。淨利息差下降，但下降速度較慢
不良資產收入好於預期。這得益於DBS自有帳戶中第三季度市場交易收入同比增長53％，受益於外匯、利率和權益衍生品波動。儘管具有不確定性，但鑑於波動性在第四季度仍在持續，該機構預計將有較高的貢獻。同時，第三季度财富管理同比增長56％。客戶正從定期存款（環比下降4％）轉向更高費用的活動。總體财富管理資產較去年同期增長14％，這應該會隨着RM增加而帶來更多費用。雖然管理層指引2025年高位數費用增長，馬來亞銀行認爲這是一個積極的驚喜。該機構將2024-26E的淨利息收入預測提高了3-8％。淨利息差在下降，但淨利息收入可能保持穩定高於預期。
淨利息差下降，但可能保持穩定。淨利息收入好於預期，商業帳戶表現良好。
NIMs fell -3bps YoY and QoQ partly from deploying liquidity to products with accounting asymmetry where the costs are captured in NII, but income is expressed in NoII. Overall, we expect NIM declines to be measured going forward given hedging and potential delays in Fed rate cuts under a new Trump Administration. Loan growth has disappointed given large repayments. DBS is seeing a good pipeline of new credit demand especially in renewables, TMT, property etc. Management is
expecting low single digit recovery in 2025E.This should help offset weaker NIMs. Asset quality continues to be benign with NPLs falling to 1%.
淨利息差同比和環比下降3個點子，部分原因是將流動性投向成本計入淨利息收入的產品，但收入表現在淨利息收入中。總的來說，考慮到對沖和特朗普新政府可能延遲的聯儲局減息，我們預計淨利息差的下降會在未來有所緩和。由於大額償還款，貸款增長令人失望。DBS看到了尤其是在可再生能源、TMt、房地產等領域的新信貸需求良好的儲備。管理層預計2025年將實現低位數的復甦。這應有助於抵消較弱的淨利息差。資產質量繼續良好，不良貸款率下降至1％。
預計低位數復甦。這將有助於抵消較弱的淨利息差。資產質量繼續良好，不良貸款比率下降至1％。
Even when BASEL4 is fully phased in, CET1 would be high at 15.2%. Management has announced a SGD3bn share buyback & cancel program. Upon completion, CET1 should fall by 0.8ppts and EPS could rise 3% (at current prices). The program may take 2-3 years, though. Additionally, Maybank thinks DBS is likely to raise progressive dividends higher. The house upgrades 2024- 26E DPS forecasts by 1-11%. Our multi-stage DDM (COE 9.9%, 3% terminal) TP has been raised to SGD46.91 from SGD44.06. Maintain BUY.
即使BASEL4完全實施，CET1也很高達15.2％。管理層宣佈了新加坡3億新元的股票回購和取消計劃。完成後，CET1應下降0.8個百分點，每股收益可能會上漲3％（按當前價格計算）。這個計劃可能需要2-3年的時間。此外，馬來亞銀行認爲星展銀行可能會提高分紅派息。該機構將2024-26E DPS預測提高了1-11％。我們的多階段DDm（9.9％，3％的終端）目標價從新加坡44.06新加坡元提高到46.91新加坡元。繼續買入。COE 我們的多階段DDM（9.9％，3％的終端）目標價已從新加坡44.06新加坡元上調至46.91新加坡元。繼續買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
