Shareholders of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKG:981) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to HK$28.55 following its latest quarterly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$2.2b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit US$0.02 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering Semiconductor Manufacturing International are now predicting revenues of US$9.19b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 53% to US$0.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 18% to HK$22.91. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Semiconductor Manufacturing International at HK$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$13.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 17% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. It's clear that while Semiconductor Manufacturing International's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Semiconductor Manufacturing International analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Semiconductor Manufacturing International that you should be aware of.

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