Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$257m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Axcelis Technologies surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.49 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Axcelis Technologies provided consensus estimates of US$985.2m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 8.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 19% to US$5.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.39 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Axcelis Technologies' prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 8.3% to US$133. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Axcelis Technologies analyst has a price target of US$175 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$100.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 25% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 19% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Axcelis Technologies is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Axcelis Technologies. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Axcelis Technologies' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Axcelis Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Axcelis Technologies that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.