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AGCO Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

AGCO Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

AGCO公司剛剛錯過了盈利——但分析師已經更新了他們的模型
Simply Wall St ·  11/09 20:39

It's shaping up to be a tough period for AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$2.6b missed by 10%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.40 fell short of forecasts by 58%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

目前對AGCO公司(NYSE:AGCO)來說可能是一個艱難的時期,一週前發佈了令人失望的季度業績,可能會對市場對該股票的看法產生顯著影響。總體看起來結果相當負面,營業收入和盈利均遠遠低於分析師的預測。26億美元的營業收入低於10%,每股盈利0.40美元低於預測的58%。 分析師通常會在每次盈利報告後更新他們的預測,我們可從他們的估算中判斷公司的看法是否改變,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利後法定共識預測,以了解明年可能會發生什麼。

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NYSE:AGCO Earnings and Revenue Growth November 9th 2024
紐交所:AGCO盈利和營收增長2024年11月9日

After the latest results, the consensus from AGCO's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$11.1b in 2025, which would reflect a chunky 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 195% to US$6.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.59 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

根據最新的結果,AGCO的13位分析師一致預測2025年營業收入爲111億美元,較去年業績下降了12%。每股盈利預計將大漲195%,達到6.72美元。在此報告之前,分析師們曾對2025年的營業收入預測爲117億美元,每股盈利(EPS)爲7.59美元。由此可見,最新結果後市場情緒明顯更爲看淡,導致降低營收預測和實際盈利預估。

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.5% to US$105. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on AGCO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$87.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AGCO shareholders.

毫無疑問,分析師們將價格目標下調了5.5%至105美元。查看分析師估值範圍也具有指導意義,用以評估極端意見與平均值之間的差異。關於AGCO,存在一些不同看法,最看好的分析師估值爲120美元,最看淡的爲每股87.00美元。分析師對業務確實有不同看法,但在我們看來,估計的範圍不夠寬泛,無法暗示極端情況將會影響AGCO的股東。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 9.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AGCO is expected to lag the wider industry.

當然,觀察這些預測的另一種方式是將其與整個行業放在一起進行對比。 這些預測表明預計營收將放緩,到2025年底將年均下降9.8%。這表明較過去五年每年增長11%的年均增長有顯着減少。我們的數據顯示,同行業其他公司預計年均收入增長3.1%。 因此,儘管預計其營收將減少,但烏雲並無銀襯 - 預計AGCO將落後於更廣泛的行業。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AGCO. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AGCO's future valuation.

分析師調低了每股收益預期,暗示對AGCO可能存在業務阻力。遺憾的是,他們還調降了營業收入預期,我們的數據顯示相較於整個行業表現不佳。即便如此,每股收益對業務內在價值更爲重要。共識價目標大幅下滑,分析師似乎並未被最新的結果所安撫,導致對AGCO未來估值的下調。

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AGCO analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

話雖如此,公司盈利的長期軌跡比明年更爲重要。我們有從多位AGCO分析師那裏得到的截至2026年的預測數據,在這裏您可以免費查看。

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for AGCO (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

值得注意的是,我們找到了AGCO的4個警示信號(其中1個可能相當嚴重!)您需要考慮進去。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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