It's been a sad week for MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$1,774 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$7.83, some 20% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$5.3b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MercadoLibre after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MercadoLibre from 24 analysts is for revenues of US$25.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 35% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 68% to US$47.66. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$25.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$49.80 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$2,309, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MercadoLibre at US$2,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1,650. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that MercadoLibre's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 27% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MercadoLibre is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MercadoLibre. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2,309, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MercadoLibre going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the MercadoLibre Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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