Description of the event

The company's total revenue for 2024Q1-3 was 5.48 billion yuan, down 8.66% year on year; net profit to mother was 19.3903 million yuan, down 89.86% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of -3.1459 million yuan, down 102.59% year on year. The company's total revenue for 2024Q3 was 1.594 billion yuan, down 20.81% year on year; net profit to mother was -4.5003 million yuan, down 325.2% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of -10.6091 million yuan.

Incident comments

The rate at which offline stores are closing has slowed, but the revenue side is still under pressure. The company's total revenue for 2024Q3 was 1.594 billion yuan, down 20.81% year-on-year. 2024Q3's online sales were 0.653 billion yuan, down 23.4% year on year; offline sales were 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.86% year on year. The company closed 120 stores in the third quarter. The pace of closing was slower than in the second quarter. Among them, 43/77 direct-managed/franchised stores were closed, mainly in central China, East China, South China and other regions. By the end of the 2024Q3 reporting period, the number of the company's offline stores reached 2,814. Looking at the company's 2024Q3 sales by channel, the growth rates of e-commerce, franchise/direct management, and group buying changed by -23.38%/-24.43%/-22.29%/+28.27%; in a regional perspective, the 2024Q3 company's growth rates in Central China/East China/Southwest/South China/North China and Northwest/Other (group buying and e-commerce business) changed by -18.54%/-39.74%/-22.42%/-21.51%/-22.55%/-16.88%, respectively. The pace of adjustment of the company's offline stores slowed in the third quarter of this year. It is expected that adjustments will gradually be put in place during the year, and the speed and quality of store opening are expected to gradually recover. The online forecast is mainly related to the continued decentralization of e-commerce platform traffic and the adjustment of the company's own online traffic strategy, putting pressure on the company's online and offline revenue.

Price system adjustments and competitive investment affect the company's profitability. The company's 2024Q1-3 net profit margin fell 2.83 pct to 0.35% year on year, gross margin fell 1.7 pct year on year to 26.84% year on year, and the cost ratio for the period increased 0.93 pct to 25.97% year over year. Details were changed year over year: sales expense ratio (+1.41pct), management fee rate (-0.3 pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.33pct), financial expenses ratio (+0.16pct), operating tax and surcharges (+0.11pct). The company's 2024Q3 net profit margin fell 0.38 pct to -0.28% year on year, gross margin increased 0.22 pct to 27.95% year on year, and the period expense ratio increased 0.48 pct to 27.54% year on year. Among the detailed changes were: sales expense ratio (+2.26pct), management expense ratio (-1.86pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.28pct), financial expense ratio (+0.36pct), operating tax and surcharges (+0.08pct).

Although the company's gross profit increased in the third quarter, the overall scale effect was not obvious. At the same time, the increase in sales expenses is expected to be mainly related to one-time rental costs and increased investment in new platforms focusing on social e-commerce, which in turn affects the company's overall profitability.

The omni-channel first-launch agency is developing collaboratively, and profitability is expected to gradually recover. Looking ahead to the whole year, although the company's offline prices have been adjusted in some categories, it is expected that price will be exchanged for volume in the medium term. The impact of price adjustments in the fourth quarter is expected to gradually weaken, and offline revenue is expected to gradually recover as stores adjust in an orderly manner; the impact of online diversification of emerging channels is gradually fading, and online revenue is expected to gradually pick up. In the context of weak recovery, the company's offline store adjustments and opening are under pressure in the short term, but with economic recovery and the gradual recovery of customer orders, it is expected that the company's cost side will continue to be optimized, gradually reducing the impact of category price adjustments, and profitability is expected to gradually recover. The company's 2024/2025 EPS is expected to be 0.07/0.25 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE stock price, which is 169/48 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

1. Changes in industry channels have led to an intensification of the competitive landscape;

2. Food safety issues, etc.