鮑威爾稱,對抗通脹的抗爭尚未結束,核心通脹仍然在某種程度上偏高,就業市場繼續非常緩慢地降溫,聯儲局會繼續減息,但若通脹降溫停滯且經濟強,可以更慢減息。短期內美國大選對貨幣政策沒影響,未來財政政策影響會考慮在內,美國赤字和財政政策是經濟阻力。
11月7日週四,聯儲局如期減息25個點子,下調聯邦基金利率目標區間至4.5%-4.75%,但決議聲明刪除關於「在抗通脹問題上獲得信心」的表述,或暗示對12月暫停減息持開放態度。
美東當地時間下午2點半,聯儲局主席鮑威爾出席記者會,讚揚美國經濟整體表現強勁,承認勞動力市場持續降溫和「有一份通脹數據比預料要高」,也明確表態聯儲局還會繼續減息。
市場聚焦他會否就未來利率路徑透露出更多有實際意義的線索、是否點評美國大選對於美國經濟前景的影響,以及特朗普潛在的減稅、關稅和支出計劃對聯儲局後續政策與監管制度的影響。
開場白:就業市場不是顯著的通脹壓力來源,若通脹降溫停滯且經濟強,可以更慢減息
在實現準備好的開場稿件中,鮑威爾稱,供應條件的改善支撐了美國經濟在過去一年表現強勁,聯儲局在實現充分就業和穩定物價雙重目標方面取得了重大進展。經濟和勞動力市場依舊穩健。
他指出,新增就業速度確實較今年早些時候放緩,過去三個月平均每月新增就業10.4萬人,但可能受到10月份罷工和颶風的臨時拖累。失業率明顯高於一年前,但在過去三個月有所下降:
「總體而言,一系列廣泛的指標表明,勞動力市場的緊張狀況比2019年疫情爆發前有所緩解。勞動力市場並不是顯著的通脹壓力來源。」
在評價通脹時,他稱,「過去兩年通脹率大幅下降」,9月PCE價格指數同比增2.1%,更接近2%的央行長期目標,但核心PCE同比上漲2.7%「仍然略高」,不過長期通脹預期似乎仍保持穩定。
他格外強調,聯儲局在「逐步轉向更加中性的立場」時沒有預設路徑,將逐次會議依照數據、不斷變化的前景與風險平衡作出「動態決策」,因爲減息過快可能阻礙通脹降溫,減息過慢又可能過度削弱經濟活動和就業:
「如果經濟保持強勁,而通脹率沒有持續向2%邁進,我們可以更緩慢地減少政策限制(注:更慢減息)。如果勞動力市場意外走弱,或者通脹率下降速度快於預期,我們可以更快地採取行動。」
鮑威爾:特朗普不能令我解僱或者降職,短期內大選對貨幣政策沒影響,不排除放慢減息
在問答環節,媒體首先聚焦鮑威爾能否在特朗普第二個總統任期內「順利屆滿退休」。
被問了太多次的鮑威爾反覆聲明自己不想回答太多政治話題,但斬釘截鐵地稱,就算特朗普要求他辭去聯儲局主席一職,他也不會從命,而且法律不允許美國總統解僱或者降職聯儲局高級官員。
當日稍早據報道,特朗普可能會讓鮑威爾繼續領導聯儲局,直至2026年5月任期結束,特朗普擔任總統期間曾經常抨擊聯儲局和鮑威爾,稱其放鬆貨幣政策的速度不夠快,阻礙美國經濟繁榮。特朗普10月還稱,美國總統應該有權參與利率決策,並有權對利率應該上調或下調發表評論。
鮑威爾也明確提到,短期內美國大選不會對貨幣政策產生影響,聯儲局也不會「猜測、臆測、或假設財政政策及其可能對經濟的影響」。
他稱今天減息後「政策仍具有限制性」,再結合他提到「對抗通脹的抗爭還沒有結束」,以及聯儲局處在更加接近中性利率的正軌上,可以推知他在提示「聯儲局仍會繼續減息」。
不過,聯儲局在政策聲明中打開了很快將暫停減息的可能性,鮑威爾也稱,無需爲了保持物價穩定這個職責而讓通脹進一步降溫,「隨着我們接近中性利率,可能放慢減息節奏是適宜的。」
他也再次重申,「聯儲局並沒有匆匆忙忙地要實現中性利率」,併發出警告稱,在聯儲局尋求降低利率之際,政府的任何變動都可能影響貨幣政策:
「原則上,任何美國政府的政策或國會制定的政策,都可能隨着時間推移產生經濟影響,因此,連同無數其他因素一起,這些經濟影響的預測將被納入聯儲局的經濟模型中,並被考慮在內。」
在特朗普勝選後,市場已經下調了對明年1月的減息預期,更主流的觀點是認爲屆時暫停減息,這一概率從一週前的44%升至54%,對12月再減息25個點子的概率則從77%小幅降至67%。
有分析指出,特朗普勝選引發了人們對聯儲局可能以更慢、更平緩步伐減息的猜測,因爲限制非法移民和實施新關稅的政策可能會推高通脹。同時,這也會引發人們討論聯儲局眼中既不限制也不刺激經濟增長的「中性利率」到底是多少。
還說了什麼:12月會議前會有更多數據,仍能軟着陸,美國赤字和財政政策是經濟阻力
鮑威爾在問答環節還提到,就業市場尚未全面實現穩定,美國勞動力市場繼續降溫,但步伐「非常緩慢」。商界認爲,2025年的經濟形勢將好於今年,但地緣政治風險偏高。薪資增速仍然略微高於與2%通脹目標相一致的水平:「我們仍在朝着更中性的立場邁進,關鍵在於正確的步伐。」
在談到通脹時,他承認「有一份通脹數據略高於預期」,但並不能令其擔心經濟:
“總體而言,我們對經濟活動感到樂觀。與此同時,我們得到了一份通脹報告,雖然不是很糟糕,但確實比預期高了一點。
但是到12月,我們將獲得更多數據,比如還會有一份就業報告、兩份通脹報告和大量其他數據,我們將在12月的會議上做出決定。”
他還重申,聯儲局依舊相信會實現「軟着陸」,「相信我們可以在實現強勁就業的同時完成抗擊高通脹的任務」,而且美國人的長期通脹預期仍錨定良好。
在談到10年期美債收益率自9月聯儲局大幅減息以來飆升超70個點子時,鮑威爾認爲美債收益率走高主要受經濟增長驅動,而不是貨幣政策驅動:
「現在判斷美國國債收益率的走勢還言之過早,似乎債券走勢並非由通脹高於預期主導,經濟活動數據一直都比預期的更強勁。」
同時,美債收益率走高也不可避免與特朗普政府未來大舉發債、導致財政赤字愈發巨大的預期有關,鮑威爾直言美國赤字不斷上升和整體財政政策仍是經濟的阻力,聯邦債務規模不可持續:
「我們的債務水平相對於經濟而言並非不合適,而是這條路徑不可持續。在赤字巨大的情況下,目前處於充分就業狀態,並且預計這種情況將繼續下去,因此處理(財政赤字)這個問題很重要,這最終是對經濟的威脅。」
鮑威爾實現準備好的記者會開場白稿件原文如下:
下午好。我和我的同事們仍然專注於實現我們的雙重使命目標,即充分就業和穩定物價,以造福美國人民。經濟總體強勁,過去兩年在實現我們的目標方面取得了重大進展。勞動力市場已從之前的過熱狀態降溫並保持穩健。截至9月份,通貨膨脹率已從7%的峯值大幅下降至2.1%。我們致力於通過支持充分就業和將通貨膨脹率恢復到2%的目標來保持經濟的強勁。
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state and remains solid. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to 2.1 percent as of September. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.
今天,聯邦公開市場委員會決定採取進一步措施,降低政策約束程度,將政策利率下調25個點子。我們仍然相信,只要適當調整我們的政策立場,經濟和勞動力市場的強勁勢頭就能保持下去,通脹率將持續下降至2%。我們還決定繼續減少證券持有量。在簡要回顧經濟發展情況後,我將就貨幣政策發表更多看法。
Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
最近的指標顯示,經濟活動繼續穩步增長。第三季度國內生產總值年增長率爲2.8%,與第二季度大致相同。消費支出增長保持韌性,設備和無形資產投資增強。相比之下,房地產行業的活動一直疲軟。總體而言,供應條件的改善支撐了美國經濟在過去一年的強勁表現。
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, about the same pace as in the second quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak. Overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.
勞動力市場狀況依然穩健。就業崗位增長速度較今年早些時候有所放緩,過去三個月平均每月新增10.4萬個。如果不是因爲10月份罷工和颶風對就業的影響,這一數字可能會更高一些。關於颶風,請允許我向所有受到這些毀滅性風暴影響的家庭、企業和社區表示慰問。失業率明顯高於一年前,但在過去三個月有所下降,10月仍保持在4.1%的低位。名義工資增長在過去一年有所放緩,開放崗位數量與求職工人之間的差距有所縮小。總體而言,一系列廣泛的指標表明,勞動力市場的緊張狀況比2019年疫情爆發前有所緩解。勞動力市場並不是重大通脹壓力的來源。
In the labor market, conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year, averaging 104 thousand per month over the past three months. This figure would have been somewhat higher were it not for the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes on employment in October. Regarding the hurricanes, let me extend our sympathies to all the families, businesses, and communities who have been harmed by these devastating storms. The unemployment rate is notably higher than it was a year ago, but has edged down over the past three months and remains low at 4.1 percent in October. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.
過去兩年,通貨膨脹率大幅下降。截至9月份的12個月內,PCE總價格上漲了2.1%;除去波動較大的食品和能源類別,核心PCE價格上漲了2.7%。總體而言,通貨膨脹率已更接近我們2% 的長期目標,但核心通貨膨脹率仍然略高。從對家庭、企業和預測者的廣泛調查以及金融市場的指標來看,長期通脹預期似乎仍保持穩定。
Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years. Total PCE prices rose 2.1 percent over the 12 months ending in September; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. Overall, inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
我們的貨幣政策行動以促進美國人民充分就業和物價穩定爲雙重使命。我們認爲實現就業和通脹目標的風險大致平衡,我們關注我們兩方面使命各自面臨的風險。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.
在今天的會議上,委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間下調25個點子,至4.5%到4.75%的區間。進一步調整我們的政策立場將有助於保持經濟和勞動力市場的強勁,並將繼續推動通脹進一步下降,也令我們將逐步轉向更加中性的立場。
At today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.
我們知道,過快減少政策約束可能會阻礙通脹(降溫)的進展。同時,過慢減少政策約束可能會過度削弱經濟活動和就業。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行額外調整時,委員會將仔細評估即將公佈的數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡。我們沒有任何預設的路線,將繼續逐次會議做出決定。
We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
隨着經濟的發展,貨幣政策將進行調整,以最好地促進我們實現充分就業和價格穩定目標。如果經濟保持強勁,而通脹率沒有持續向2%邁進,我們可以更緩慢地減少政策限制。如果勞動力市場意外走弱,或者通脹率下降速度快於預期,我們可以更快地採取行動。政策已經準備好應對我們在追求雙重使命時面臨的風險和不確定性。
As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation is not sustainably moving toward 2 percent, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can move more quickly. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.
聯儲局被賦予了兩個貨幣政策目標——最大限度就業和穩定物價。我們仍然致力於支持最大限度就業,將通脹率持續降至2%的目標,並保持長期通脹預期穩定。我們能否成功實現這些目標對所有美國人來說都至關重要。我們明白,我們的行動會影響到全美各地的社區、家庭和企業。我們所做的一切都是爲了履行我們的公共使命。聯儲局將竭盡全力實現最大限度就業和物價穩定的目標。謝謝,期待討論。
The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.
編輯/lambor