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美债“末日循环”风险未除!美联储或被迫提早QE?

The risk of the US debt "doomsday loop" is not eliminated! Will the Federal Reserve be forced to start QE early?

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 7 21:44

Analysts suggest that risks related to the banking industry may compel the Fed to implement some form of quantitative easing earlier than expected.

President Trump's reelection victory ignited a stock market rally and propelled Bitcoin to new all-time highs, but Stephanie Pomboy, the founder of MacroMavens, warned that the long-term impact on the US economy remains uncertain, especially against the backdrop of rising national debt.

After the election results were announced, investors swiftly shifted to trades aligned with Trump's policies on tariffs, taxes, government borrowing, and cryptocurrencies.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite Index set new record highs, with the Dow rising over 1500 points. The last time the Dow gained over 1000 points in a single day was in November 2022.

Riding on Trump's campaign promises to establish the US as the 'global capital of cryptocurrencies' and create a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve,' Bitcoin surged to a historic high, surpassing $76,000.

However, given the US federal debt approaching nearly $36 trillion, concerns about the US economic condition should not be overlooked.

Pomboy stated: 'We have a lot of heavily indebted corporations, and for many lower-tier companies in the US, they are already unable to repay their debts, which will be a problem.'

Pomboy also highlighted the fragility of the banking sector, pointing out that banks hold 'unrealized losses of $500 billion. This won't just disappear. It hasn't been resolved.'

She believes that these losses have not been properly addressed and may pose significant risks to the financial system.

She said, "Debt and deficits are survival threats to our economy and the dollar hegemony. This is a doomsday cycle - as higher interest rates lead to our deficits ballooning, it is essentially accelerating the day of reckoning."

She added that risks related to the banking industry may force the Fed to implement some form of quantitative easing sooner than expected. "What is really worrying now is the shadow banking system, because it is opaque. Problems may start to emerge there. People are valuing assets at levels completely unrelated to reality."

After Trump's victory, the price of gold fell, with a drop of over $80 on Wednesday. The final trading price for spot gold was $2,659 per ounce.

Pomboy explained that the drop in gold price was due to the rise in the USD index, as these two assets typically move inversely. However, she noted that the decline in gold is just a "brief fluctuation in a bull market where gold is expected to continue to rise significantly."

Pomboy emphasized that given the ongoing deficits in the USA and the persistent de-dollarization trend, the strength of the dollar in the long term is unsustainable.

"We are witnessing a phenomenon of global capital outflows. We are facing a survival issue, which is how to finance our deficits in the vacuum they leave behind. No one has come up with any clever solutions. In the absence of solutions, the USD devalues, and gold rises," she described.

Pomboy pointed out that if measures are not taken to boost global confidence in the USD, there would be a huge issue of "financing these deficits and potentially real malignant inflation."

Pomboy also acknowledged that Trump's pro-growth policies may boost the economy and help curb deficit growth. "The most effective way to solve the deficit is through growth," she said. "If we can make the economy grow, it would be a game-changer, at least in curbing the deficit growth."

However, she also expressed concerns about the potential impact of higher-than-expected interest rates on the economy. "Despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, rates are likely to remain at elevated levels for a long time. I worry about the tug-of-war between heightened economic growth expectations and interest rates. This is a major obstacle for an economy as highly leveraged as ours."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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